On the radio show, my co-host FSTA Hall of Famer Glenn Colton argued that there is not a large enough sample size to use the numbers that are available so far since any single game data will account for one-third of all the numbers accumulated by any team.  Well, true dat, but it is one more piece of information in order to determine which players can perform this week based on their opponent.  So, we get our lesson today from Total Recall.  Whether you pick the 1990 Arnold Schwarzenegger classic or the 2012 Colin Farrell remake, the lesson is there.  Are players simple hard working players like Douglas Quaid or Cohaagen’s bossom buddy Carl Hauser?  No doubt that the original was one of Sharon Stone’s best, but the Basic Instinct in Kate Beckinsale can make anyone want to believe they are Quaid.

Like many fantasy football players, when the week starts I think I have it all figured out, then they play the games. Sometimes I end up as the savior of the rebel cause on Mars and other times I am Cohaagen’s bossom buddy.

Meeting Melina

Melina is tough, athletic and demure and will teach Quaid who he really is to help the Rebel cause.  So here is our Melina, a chart of the matchups this week and their points in a PPR allowed vs a given position.  I will use this chart to help decide my roster in The Fantasy 100.  I will have Total Recall on the performances of the players so far so that I can pick the best players with the best matchups.  Also, in order to pick a good lineup, you sometimes have to go with someone different than you want to because they either are not available in the game or they cost too much (their Tier is too low). 

Now to my lineup and why?

 

Tony Romo – DAL QB – Tier 6 - at SDG (33 pts/wk vs QBs)

Anyone who has watched the first games of the season knows that Philadelphia’s defense is easy on QBs and Manning has been ridiculous.  So it would make sense to take Manning here.  However, we can save 5 Tier points by going with Romo and he should be within 5-7 points of Manning.  Good trade off.

LeSean McCoy PHI – RB – Tier 1 – at DEN (28 pts/wk vs RBs)

Because teams have been behind Denver all year, the defense has given up a lot of garbage time yardage as teams throw a lot to get back in it.  The Eagles check down to or run draw plays a lot when behind.  When they get behind, expect Shady to do the damage.

Darren McFadden – OAK - RB – Tier 5 – H WAS (27 pts/wk vs RBs)

Although McFadden is 21st among RBs in a PPR this season, the matchup dictates that we have players vs WAS in the lineup.  They have given up the most points to RBs and WRs this season.  We will make sure that we get one of each in the lineup.  Don’t care who is throwing to them.  Send em up.

Demaryius Thomas – DEN – WR – Tier 1 – at PHI (48 pts/wk vs WRs)

This is a crap shoot really.  With four great weapons in Denver, they cannot all score.  The three WRs have just about the same number of catches and Welker has a couple of more TDs.  The reason that we trust Thomas more this week is the bubble screens that they have been running for him when in the jumbo package (Welker is not on the field).  He will break at least one of those for major yardage and a TD.

Stevie Johnson – BUF – WR – Tier 7 – H BAL (42 pts/wk vs WRs)

Johnson is the 16th ranked WR with 236 yards and 2 TDs.  Now, I know that the Ravens opened the season in Denver and some of the numbers are skewed by the 7 TD performance from Peyton, but I feel confident that the GREAT value that I get with 7 Tier points will be worth as he will see paydirt.

Denarius Moore – OAK – WR – Tier 8 – H WAS (53 pts/wk vs WRs)

He did most of his damage last week on missed tackles when he ran for 71 yards and a score.  He was 6 for 124 and a TD while targeted 11 times.  Talented, fast, 3rd year WR with a great matchup.  Taking the risk here.

Jason Witten – DAL – TE – Tier 4 – at SDG (18 pts/wk vs TEs)

Like Manning at QB, wanted to have Graham here.  You cannot have every star and getting Witten who should be like lightning against the Chargers will put numbers that are less than a TD behind the best TE in football.  He is also a sure thing.

Cincinnati Defense – Tier 8 – at CLE (28th in Points Scored)

Taking Cincy is another situation where I would have preferred to have the Seahawks as they are just dominating.  This is a great matchup with a great value.  Cleveland played with a lot of emotion last week, but now there is a week’s worth of film on Hoyer.  Gut check for the young QB this week versus a tough defense.

Anquan Boldin – SFO – WR – Tier 5 – at STL (48 pts/wk vs WRs)

Wow, have the rams given up a lot of points to WRs this year.  Romo had his way with them last week.  They don’t have a shut-down corner to lock down Boldin.  Even double covered, Boldin will get his 5-80 and a TD.  Send him up.

Julian Edelman – NEW – WR – Tier 5 – at ATL (45 pts/wk vs WRs)

We know that Gronk will be back on Sunday Night.  Some think that will bottle up Edelman.  I think the opposite.  That will take attention away from him.  The guy that it hurts is Kenbrell Thompkins.  He is an average WR who now won’t get the targets.  Edelman hits paydirt on SNF on NBC in Hot-lanta.

Figuring out who you are

So now as the weeks go on, we find out more and more who the players are and what exactly they are capable of.  Sometimes you have to look yourself in the mirror on Tuesday mornings and recognize that you let emotions or numbers drive you and your forgot to go by what you see.  It is always best to watch the games.  On those days, I always think of the words of Hauser (or Quaid depending on what you believe), “Howdy, stranger! This is Hauser. If things have gone wrong, I'm talking to myself and you don't have a wet towel around your head. Now, whatever your name is, get ready for the big surprise. You are not you, you're me.”

So, don’t be caught pulling a tracking device out of your brain on Tuesday mornings.  Look at the numbers, watch the games, play hard and plan how to rebel against Cohaagan and bring blue skies to Mars.  If you decide not to heed this message than like Arnold says after he shoots his traitor wife…

Consider This a Divorce


Rick Wolf, Co-Host of Colton & The Wolfman - Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio  The Fantasy 100Rick Wolf is a leader in the fantasy sports industry. Wolf is a founding Board Member and one of only fifteen FSTA Hall of Famers including Bill James and Matthew Berry. Wolf’s career accomplishments include starting the fantasy sports division at SportsLine USA that became CBS SportsLine, incubating Rotoworld to become the #1 fantasy sports news site, and spearheading the sale of Allstar Stats/Rotoworld to NBC Sports in 2006.  With college friend and fellow Hall of Famer, Glenn Colton, the team has won 7 expert titles in baseball and football. Twitter: RickWolf1  

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