Welcome into Week 12, and we’re very thankful you’re reading this article here on Fantasy Alarm! That likely means you’re still alive in your Survivor Pool, and our picks last week hit some bad luck. Who saw the New York Giants putting up 30 points on the Commanders at home? Even as bad as the Commanders' defense and Giants’ offense have been, that one came as quite a shock.

We’ve got a slate in Week 12 broken up by the Thanksgiving games, plus a Black Friday game between the Dolphins and Jets. Enjoy the games, enjoy our picks for advancing to Week 13 in your Survival pool, and Happy Thanksgiving!

We will help you get to the promised land one week at a time with our picks, but in case you’re not familiar with Survivor pools, here’s a quick rundown:

Pick a team that wins in each NFL week. Typically, you choose a team just once, so each selection is essential. Some survivor pools have double-elimination so that you can slip up and still be in the running. Make sure you’re checking out our weekly matchup previews and our Survivor League Strategy in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide as guides toward picking the best winners for each week and developing a strategy.

Let’s dive right in with Week 12’s picks!

2023 Survival Pool Picks Record

Week 11: 3-2 (.600)

Overall: 40-15 (.727)


NFL Week 12 DraftKings Odds, Implied Totals, Spreads, and Over/Under

*All lines current as of 12:00 PM ET, 11/22/23, courtesy of Vegas Insider*

NFL Week 12 Survivor Picks

Tennessee Titans

If there’s a game out that screams “run the damn ball,” it’s this one, and that is directed at one Derrick Henry. It might be a couple of weeks until “DHenber” officially starts, but this will be one of those weekend Black Friday doorbusters you can get on Sunday. 

The Titans are 3.5-point favorites at home against the worst team in the NFL, the Carolina Panthers. Sure, the Titans have lost five of their last six games, but the Panthers are this season’s free square. When would you ever feel this level of comfort with using the Titans? This game has Derrick Henry written all over it, and all three of Tennessee’s wins this season have come within the confines of Nissan Stadium in Nashville. They are not projected to be a favorite in any other game for the rest of the season. It’s pretty likely you haven’t used them, so if you’re looking at matchups down the road with some of the bigger favorites or better teams, this is a spot to deviate and play the Titans this week.

Miami Dolphins

These are the career stats of the man/meat shield that the New York Football Jets are trotting out this Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, Tim Boyle. Yikes.

Miami is favored by the second-most points on the slate on the road, as they’re -10 heading into MetLife Stadium. The Jets are looking for something, ANYTHING better than embattled former starting quarterback Zach Wilson. They’re probably not getting it this week. Unless the legitimately tough Jets defense can score more points than the offense (and they’re certainly live to do that), they won’t be coming close to the 15.5 implied point total oddsmakers are giving them this week.

How soon do the Jets turn to second-string quarterback Trevor Siemian? If they turn to him during this game after watching Tim Boyle, it’s likely a great sign for the Dolphins getting a divisional win in Week 12.

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are just 2.5-point favorites at home against a Cleveland Browns team with the same problem as the New York Jets: a stifling defense but a clear deficiency at quarterback.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson was as game-manager as game-manager gets, throwing a crazy 43 times for just 165 yards. That would be a 3.4-yard aDOT. As a Broncos defense, it’s a prime matchup against a team that’s unable to push the ball downfield, which makes their assignments much easier. 

Somehow, the Browns don’t have the lowest implied point total but are tied with the Carolina Panthers for second-worst (16.5), and the Broncos are somehow only giving up 2.5 points at home in this matchup. It will be a bit of a struggle offensively — the over/under is set at 35 points — but the Broncos should be able to ride this modest run they’re on to outscore the Browns in Week 12.

Other NFL Week 12 Survivor Pool Options

Dallas Cowboys

Okay, so I may have lied a bit last week. I said that the Carolina Panthers last week was the last matchup you could feel comfortable using the Cowboys in Survivor pools. If you have not selected the Cowboys yet, THIS is the final matchup where you can feel good about selecting them.

I promise. For realsies.

The Cowboys come off of a 33-10 win over the Panthers in Week 11 and now head home to host a Thanksgiving afternoon tilt against the Washington Commanders, where they’re 11-point favorites and sport the highest implied point total of the entire slate at 29.75 points. And why shouldn’t the Cowboys be massive favorites? Washington just took a 31-19 home loss to the Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants. That’s about as low as it gets before an intervention is necessary for Ron Rivera. He may get one that ends with his dismissal at the end of the year, but this next loss for the Commanders will come in front of a mid-day national audience on Thanksgiving.

The question isn’t “Do the Commanders find a way to win?”, it’s “Who on the Cowboys is getting the turkey leg?”

Detroit Lions

Start your Thanksgiving holiday weekend off right by taking the Detroit Lions in a home game against the depleted Green Bay Packers, and feel good knowing you can rest easy for the holiday weekend after moving on to Week 13. The Lions are 7.5-point favorites against the Packers, who may not have a large contingent of their offensive weapons like Aaron Jones, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and potentially Jayden Reed.

The Lions have lost six consecutive Thanksgiving day home games, but that run should end here now that the Lions are a vastly different team than those previous iterations.