Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no receiving yards, no receiving touchdowns, and no receptions without a target.

We want the players on our rosters in fantasy football who will earn these targets because targets are the most important thing to look at when trying to separate one pass-catcher from another on a base level. Sure, the player that earned 160 targets may be a better fantasy option than the player who earned 110, but that doesn’t take into account the offenses these players are in, the target share percentages on their particular team, how deep down the field these targets were earned, and so on.

Each week, we’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. 

 

 

Week 3 was a weird week for fantasy football but still, data to be sorted through to pick up some team and player usage tendencies. Before we get into the target report, let's dive into a legend of terms we'll be referencing.

 LEGEND
TargetsPasses thrown in the direction of a receiver, whether intended or not.
ReceptionsPasses caught by a pass-catcher.
Rec. YardsYards gained by a reception by the pass-catcher.
TDReceiving touchdowns.
Air YardsYards a thrown ball travels before it reaches the pass-catcher; on complete or incomplete passes. This statistic is significant for determining the quarterback and coaching staff's predictive value in an offense and their intent.
Air Yards Team Share %A percentage share of air yards a pass-catcher has on their team in a given week.
Route %Percentage of routes a pass-catcher runs on a pass play per dropback on their team.
Snap %Percentage of snaps a pass-catcher plays on an offensive series on their team.
Target Share %Percentage of targets a pass-catcher receives in a given week on their team.
TPRRA metric that measures how often a receiver is targeted when he's running a route. A higher % means that player is better at earning targets when he's on the field. A low raw route number or low route % coupled with high TPRR % means that pass-catcher is efficient at earning targets and could be in line for more routes depending on team situation.
YPRRA metric that contextualizes efficiency a pass-catcher with how many receiving yards per route run. A much better metric than yards per reception.
aDOTaDOT is "average depth of target", and is the average depth of all targets caught or incomplete by a targeted pass-catcher.

 

NFL Week 3 Target Report

Arizona Cardinals

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards  %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Marquise BrownWR1714140014042.2%95.2%95.2%30.9%28.8%2.378.2
Greg DortchWR1098003811.4%85.5%80.7%18.2%18.9%1.513.8
Zach ErtzTE1064505917.8%87.1%92.8%18.2%18.5%0.835.9
James ConnerRB53180-1-0.3%33.9%60.2%9.1%23.8%0.86-0.2
Andre BaccelliaWR421304814.5%35.5%31.3%7.3%18.2%0.5912.0
Eno BenjaminRB4270-13-3.9%21.0%26.5%7.3%30.8%0.54-3.3
Andy IsabellaWR211104012.0%35.5%38.6%3.6%9.1%0.5020.0
A.J. GreenWR2000247.2%35.5%33.7%3.6%9.1%0.0012.0
Darrel WilliamsRB1000-3-0.9%16.1%16.9%1.8%10.0%0.00-3.0
Maxx WilliamsTE000000.0%3.2%10.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Stephen AndersonTE000000.0%3.2%7.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

There’s a reason why Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat right now with his head coaching job

In this game against the Rams, the Cardinals had 58 (!!) pass attempts and three players had 10-plus targets, accounting for 78% of the targets in this offense.

Marquise Brown’s 17 targets plus Greg Dortch (79% routes) and Zach Ertz’s 10 targets apiece paced the offensive attack here. There might be enough meat on the bone in this offense for Dortch to maintain a role in this offense when Rondale Moore comes back, but I’m just not sure if it will be a fantasy-friendly role. It’ll be a wait-and-see thing. 

 

Week 3 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Marquise Brown, James Conner, Zach Ertz (I suppose), Kyler Murray

Dump ‘Em: If you picked up Darrel Williams off of waivers last week in the event that Conner would potentially miss Week 3, you can safely drop him.

  • Gotta keep holding Moore if you’ve held him for this long.

 

Atlanta Falcons

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Kyle PittsTE8587016552.9%65.4%65.5%42.1%47.1%5.1220.6
Drake LondonWR635419028.8%76.9%82.8%31.6%30.0%2.7015.0
Olamide ZaccheausWR224904915.7%65.4%65.5%10.5%11.8%2.8824.5
Anthony FirkserTE11220144.5%19.2%15.5%5.3%20.0%4.4014.0
Cordarrelle PattersonRB11120-2-0.6%46.2%60.3%5.3%8.3%1.00-2.0
Tyler AllgeierRB1150-4-1.3%30.8%36.2%5.3%12.5%0.63-4.0
Parker HesseTE000000.0%34.6%74.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Keith SmithFB000000.0%15.4%39.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
KhaDarel HodgeWR000000.0%23.1%19.0%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Jared BernhardtWR000000.0%3.8%12.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Frank DarbyWR000000.0%23.1%12.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Avery WilliamsRB000000.0%7.7%6.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

The stage was set for a Kyle Pitts week, and while we didn’t get a full-blown eruption, we got some bubbling on the surface that could lead to the eventual eruption. 

Some would say his day in Week 3 was a tease. Pitts was stuck on 4-82 for a long time through the first and into the second half where he caught just one more ball. The talent has never been the question, and with Drake London (3-54-1 on six targets) next to him, it bodes well for Pitts in the long run. Pitts just needs to run more routes as he ran his lowest share (65%, down from 76% and 88% in the first two weeks) of the season.

 

Week 3 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Kyle Pitts, Drake London

Dump ‘Em: N/A

  • We’re only rostering a limited amount of Falcons in fantasy. Patterson has been crushing it on the ground (and not through the air), so one has to ask: Is that rushing production at all sustainable for the former wide receiver?
  • Tyler Allgeier bumped up his work from Week 2 to Week 3 (36% snaps, 30% routes) but only received six carries as a result (down from 10 last week). Still, any increases are encouraging developments.

 

Baltimore Ravens

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Mark AndrewsTE13889215258.2%91.2%90.0%48.1%41.9%2.8711.7
Rashod BatemanWR425908833.7%79.4%61.7%14.8%14.8%2.1922.0
Devin DuvernayWR22251155.7%64.7%58.3%7.4%9.1%1.147.5
J.K. DobbinsRB2217041.5%41.2%43.3%7.4%14.3%1.212.0
Josh OliverTE2281-3-1.1%29.4%40.0%7.4%20.0%0.80-1.5
Isaiah LikelyTE2180-6-2.3%47.1%33.3%7.4%12.5%0.50-3.0
Patrick RicardFB1112020.8%35.3%65.0%3.7%8.3%1.002.0
Demarcus RobinsonWR100093.4%32.4%36.7%3.7%9.1%0.009.0
Justice HillRB000000.0%29.4%48.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Tylan WallaceWR000000.0%8.8%15.0%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Nick BoyleTE000000.0%0.0%6.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Mike DavisRB000000.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Mark Andrews is #good. This is usually reserved for Cooper Kupp, but my lord is Andrews destroying worlds right now. He’s the TE1 and as the kids say, “it’s not even close.”

Rashod Bateman wasn’t that great (2-59, four targets, 79% routes) in Week 3, but in a game that was target-dominated by Andrews and Andrews alone with only 29 Lamar Jackson pass attempts, it was almost to be expected. Most weeks, the targets are concentrated on Bateman and Andrews, and everything went to Andrews. The other two touchdowns went to Devin Duvernay and Josh Oliver so Bateman couldn’t salvage his day with one.

 

Week 3 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, J.K. Dobbins, Lamar Jackson

Dump ‘Em: Dump the backup running backs with quickness, like Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis if you still have them clinging to your roster for some reason.

  • J.K. Dobbins made his season debut in Week 3 and only saw seven carries but led Baltimore’s running backs in snaps and was just behind Justice Hill’s 48% routes with 40% of his own. Encouraging and Dobbins should be able to build up those percentages weekly to leave the other running backs in the proverbial dust. He’ll work his way up to the high-end RB2 discussion in a couple of weeks, but he’s still startable in flex capacity.

 

Buffalo Bills

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Devin SingletaryRB119781123.5%53.4%72.8%19.3%28.2%2.001.1
Stefon DiggsWR1177408424.7%72.6%69.6%19.3%20.8%1.407.6
Isaiah McKenzieWR977615917.4%56.2%51.1%15.8%22.0%1.856.6
Gabe DavisWR633706519.1%95.9%95.7%10.5%8.6%0.5310.8
James CookRB5437072.1%9.6%12.0%8.8%71.4%5.291.4
Dawson KnoxTE4425051.5%58.9%70.7%7.0%9.3%0.581.3
Reggie GilliamFB32220308.8%16.4%21.7%5.3%25.0%1.8310.0
Jamison CrowderWR31905115.0%47.9%48.9%5.3%8.6%0.2617.0
Quintin MorrisTE22220226.5%27.4%31.5%3.5%10.0%1.1011.0
Jake KumerowWR2214061.8%4.1%5.4%3.5%66.7%4.673.0
Zack MossRB1160-1-0.3%9.6%17.4%1.8%14.3%0.86-1.0

A TON of volume to be had with the Bills’ pass-catchers in Week 3 and the weird game script that had Buffalo run 90 plays (highest in Week 3) versus Miami’s 39 (lowest in Week 3). Josh Allen had a staggering 73 dropbacks in this one. Not everybody ate at the table however despite the monstrous volume afforded to Buffalo. It was mostly underneath work though as evidenced by Allen’s 6.1-yard aDOT and hyper-targeting of Devin Singletary (11 targets, 9-78-1, 53% routes). 

Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie both combined for 20 targets but Diggs (7.6 aDOT) and McKenzie (6.6 aDOT) both ran routes shorter than usual as that’s what Miami gave them. The reduced routes shares for the Bills could likely be explained by the heat in Miami on Sunday, as some plays left the game for a handful of plays to hydrate.

 

Week 3 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen

Dump ‘Em: Zack Moss can be dropped here. Even if he did reel off a 40+ yard run, he lost a lot some work to James Cook, and that could likely be a theme.

  • I do hesitate to put Gabe Davis in the “start your studs” tier, but the fact that he’s running almost every pass route on arguably the top offense in football is a great thing. His production in fantasy may be more volatile than we thought as a player who is always on the field as a split end and tethered to the line of scrimmage but in a deeper-aDOT role that doesn’t lend itself to target volume but DOES lend itself to big play and spike-week potential. That was always the thesis behind drafting Davis in the mid-late third round in drafts. Davis is still a high-end WR3 and can definitely pace your fantasy lineup with huge spike weeks so he should be starting in most instances.

 

Carolina Panthers

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
DJ MooreWR61205635.9%100.0%98.4%25.0%20.7%0.079.3
Robbie AndersonWR411406944.2%86.2%83.6%16.7%16.0%0.5617.3
Christian McCaffreyRB427010.6%65.5%80.3%16.7%21.1%0.370.3
Ian ThomasTE3213021.3%37.9%62.3%12.5%27.3%1.180.7
Laviska ShenaultWR2290110.6%20.7%18.0%8.3%33.3%15.000.5
Shi SmithWR222201610.3%44.8%36.1%8.3%15.4%1.698.0
Giovanni RicciFB2115053.2%24.1%50.8%8.3%28.6%2.142.5
Tommy TrembleTE117063.8%37.9%39.3%4.2%9.1%0.646.0
Chuba HubbardRB000000.0%6.9%11.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
D'Onta ForemanRB000000.0%13.8%6.6%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Stephen SullivanTE000000.0%3.4%3.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

I feel like there’s not enough space in this article to truly tell you how I feel about this entire organization and the “brain trust” that put Matt Rhule, Ben McAdoo, and Baker Mayfield together in some kind of American Horror Story series masquerading as an NFL franchise.

This is a franchise that currently doesn’t know what it’s doing or where it’s going but hopes it can find it along the way. Along the way, they’re actively ruining one of the NFL's most talented young wide receivers in D.J. Moore, with empty volume (six targets, one catch, two yards, 100% route participation). They’re also actively ruining the greatest fantasy running back ever, Christian McCaffrey. Obviously, anytime you can give Shi Smith more pass routes than McCaffrey in the first two weeks, you’ve gotta do it.

The worst part? If Matt Rhule gets fired, the possibility of offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo assuming the interim head coach title is real.

The appeal of drafting McCaffrey is getting the best receiving threat out of the running back position and being peppered with high-value touches. Even on bad Panthers teams, McCaffrey was still incredibly productive. This is about not putting the best players on the field, and that entire operation begins with Matt Rhule and whatever “scheme” this offense is running that includes replacement-level players like Smith getting way too much time on the field and running too many routes.

 

Week 3 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore (he’s losing grip fast)

Dump ‘Em: Robbie Anderson is a drop, and sure, he might put up good numbers every sixth week, but you never know when you can plug him into your lineup to get that boom week.

  • There’s nobody else here that we’re rostering unless the Panthers want to make Laviska Shenault the big slot in this offense over Smith. 
     

Bonus: This is the best call of a touchdown you’ll see all season, and I’d bet money on it.

 

Chicago Bears

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Darnell MooneyWR622305739.9%96.0%93.7%37.5%25.0%0.969.5
Cole KmetTE324005236.4%80.0%92.1%18.8%15.0%2.0017.3
Equanimeous St. BrownWR212002416.8%92.0%85.7%12.5%8.7%0.8712.0
Khalil HerbertRB22120-5-3.5%56.0%60.3%12.5%14.3%0.86-2.5
Byron PringleWR1111074.9%4.0%3.2%6.3%100.0%11.007.0
Jake TongesTE1000139.1%4.0%9.5%6.3%100.0%0.0013.0
Trestan EbnerRB1000-5-3.5%24.0%23.8%6.3%16.7%0.00-5.0
Dante PettisWR000000.0%72.0%57.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Khari BlasingameFB000000.0%12.0%28.6%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Trevon WescoTE000000.0%8.0%23.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
David MontgomeryRB000000.0%16.0%17.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR000000.0%12.0%7.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Look, if the Bears want to take their passing game seriously, maybe I’ll write serious things in here. At this current point in time, you can’t start anybody. At all. Not in this economy.

If the Buffalo Bills are Harvard University, then Chicago Bears are the South Harmon Institute of Technology. It’s a facade of a real institution that is professional football.

Whether it’s Luke Getsy, Justin Fields, the stink of Matt Nagy, or a combination of the three, it doesn’t matter. An NFL passing game in 2022 needs to be better than this.

Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are running the routes shares we want, but the offense is atrocious so it doesn’t even matter.

 

Week 3 Chicago Bears Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: What studs?

Dump ‘Em: Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, mostly anybody that wears a Chicago Bears uniform, that plays on offense and doesn’t have the names “Montgomery or Herbert” on the back.

  • The real nugget here lies in the running game, which is just so chock with volume that the main piece should be rostered in fantasy. That would be David Montgomery, but he’s likely out for Week 4 and potentially for the next week or two after that. Enter Khalil Herbert, who should be rostered everywhere after 169 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. He should also be running plenty of routes, so for the Bears who pass the ball with the frequency of a service academy (an NFL-low 34.5%), maybe Herbert will run into a couple of dump-offs here.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Ja'Marr ChaseWR10629112443.7%100.0%86.8%28.6%25.6%0.7412.4
Tee HigginsWR7593010035.2%89.7%67.6%20.0%20.0%2.6614.3
Joe MixonRB73140-19-6.7%64.1%66.2%20.0%28.0%0.56-2.7
Tyler BoydWR5410515419.0%82.1%67.6%14.3%15.6%3.2810.8
Samaje PerineRB22141134.6%15.4%33.8%5.7%33.3%2.336.5
Hayden HurstTE217082.8%51.3%38.2%5.7%10.0%0.354.0
Mitchell WilcoxTE119000.0%30.8%57.4%2.9%8.3%0.750.0
Chris EvansRB114041.4%2.6%2.9%2.9%100.0%4.004.0
Devin AsiasiTE000000.0%7.7%35.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Mike ThomasWR000000.0%5.1%13.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Stanley MorganWR000000.0%5.1%8.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Trent TaylorWR000000.0%25.6%2.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

The table was set for these Cincinnati Bengals, and a feast was prepared. And at least for the wide receivers, everybody ate and got their fill.

Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t as hungry, but he still scored to salvage his day while earning the most targets (10 targets, 6-29-1, 100% route participation). Tyler Boyd had a long touchdown and was the most productive fantasy receiver of the trio in Week 3.

Tee Higgins (5-93, seven targets. 90% routes) should have had a touchdown as well. You be the judge.

Even Joe Mixon was targeted at a pretty healthy clip even if he didn’t have the production to go with it (3-14-0 on seven targets). Samaje Perine got the receiving touchdown.

That’s all well and good, but what am I excited about in Week 4? THESE UNIFORMS. And we get them TONIGHT.

 

Week 3 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon

Dump ‘Em: Nobody to really dump unless you still have Hayden Hurst clanking around on your roster. The Bengals have one of the most condensed personnel usages in the NFL, so the studs are the ones out there for most snaps barring injury.

  • There will be a handful of games where Tyler Boyd has his day (4-105-1, five targets, 82% routes) but they are hard to come by because of the alpha nature of both Chase and Higgins. It’s a great problem to have, but it caps the upside of a guy like Boyd and makes him very start to feel comfortable about putting him into your fantasy lineups. So that’s why despite the great offense he plays in, there’s just not enough meat on the bone to call Boyd anything more than a low-end WR3.

 

Cleveland Browns

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Amari CooperWR117101113263.8%97.0%81.9%35.5%34.4%3.1612.0
David NjokuTE1098914622.2%81.8%87.5%32.3%37.0%3.304.6
Kareem HuntRB4314021.0%51.5%44.4%12.9%23.5%0.820.5
Donovan Peoples-JonesWR31100167.7%84.8%87.5%9.7%10.7%0.365.3
David BellWR116031.4%57.6%55.6%3.2%5.3%0.323.0
Nick ChubbRB100031.4%42.4%62.5%3.2%7.1%0.003.0
Miller ForristallTE100052.4%12.1%5.6%3.2%25.0%0.005.0
Harrison BryantTE000000.0%42.4%47.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Anthony SchwartzWR000000.0%6.1%6.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

The Browns were hyper-concentrated with their passing game as only five players caught receptions, and 76% of them (16 of 21) were caught by either Amari Cooper or David Njoku.

This makes the second consecutive week where Cooper has had a 9-101-1 line, so maybe there’s some backtracking to do on my part for not being on Cooper enough in fantasy drafts.

On the other hand, it’s a passing game led by Jacoby Brissett that passes 45% of the time, and the down weeks are going to be DOWN weeks. There will be weeks where Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell, and whoever else the Browns want to trot out will need to make plays and take some passing volume. Defenses are going to catch on to Cooper’s game, and while he can pull in some contested catches, he’s not Justin Jefferson here. Make no mistake, you’re starting Cooper here in every format for now, but just know there will be some high-variance weeks coming. Heck, we already saw one in Week 1 with Cooper, where he put up a 3-17-0 line on just six targets.

 

Week 3 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tentatively, Amari Cooper. He’s WR12 currently in PPR formats.

Dump ‘Em: If you haven’t dumped Donovan Peoples-Jones after his great Week 1, it’s probably a good time to do that ASAP as he’s combined for just four targets and one catch since his 11-target, 6-60 game to open 2022.

  • David Njoku gets a slightly longer leash just because of the state of the tight end position, but he’s still just a matchup-based streaming option or injury fill-in. He’s had 81% of routes in the last two weeks, but Harrison Bryant still looms to take just enough work &routes (47% routes in the last two weeks) to shave some upside away from Njoku.

 

 

 

Dallas Cowboys

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
CeeDee LambWR12887113051.2%100.0%95.3%40.0%38.7%2.8110.8
Noah BrownWR755405220.5%87.1%79.7%23.3%25.9%2.007.4
Peyton HendershotTE33430176.7%48.4%59.4%10.0%20.0%2.875.7
Jake FergusonTE3213072.8%45.2%82.8%10.0%21.4%0.932.3
Jalen TolbertWR21403815.0%45.2%35.9%6.7%14.3%0.2919.0
Simi FehokoWR1112083.1%6.5%4.7%3.3%50.0%6.008.0
Ezekiel ElliottRB1120-1-0.4%67.7%64.1%3.3%4.8%0.10-1.0
Tony PollardRB100031.2%29.0%43.8%3.3%11.1%0.003.0
Sean McKeonTE000000.0%6.5%17.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
KaVontae TurpinWR000000.0%9.7%12.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Rico DowdleRB000000.0%0.0%3.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Imagine purposely watching an island game with Cooper Rush and Daniel Jones as the quarterbacks.

I kid, I kid, but this game had some interesting moments, and most of them involved CeeDee Lamb — good and bad.

Here’s good. VERY good. 

Lamb has produced pretty well with Rush (as has Noah Brown) and at the very least, Rush knows to just hyper-target Lamb (23 targets in two weeks).

Brown has been a godsend for this Dallas team with an almost 21% target share so far, but Michael Gallup looms to take over a lot of that production and then Prescott will be back very soon. Still, we’re much more bullish on the Cowboys' offense with Rush than originally anticipated. That makes the outlook for Prescott’s return look even better.

 

Week 3 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott (listed under protest), Dalton Schultz (when healthy)

Dump ‘Em: If you’re still holding onto Jalen Tolbert shares, it’s probably time to release those back onto waivers.

  • Our lord and savior Tony Pollard impressed with each and every touch and eventually led the Cowboys with 105 yards rushing, but it was Elliott with 73 rushing yards and a touchdown. Elliott saw the bulk of the work with 68% routes and 64% snaps, but Pollard mixed in and was efficient in doing so. Pollard deserves more work — full stop.

 

Denver Broncos

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Courtland SuttonWR10897010043.7%97.5%86.5%31.3%25.6%2.4910.0
Melvin GordonRB65290-6-2.6%32.5%37.8%18.8%46.2%2.23-1.0
Jerry JeudyWR621708436.7%75.0%59.5%18.8%20.0%0.5714.0
Javonte WilliamsRB5320-13-5.7%32.5%44.6%15.6%38.5%0.15-2.6
Albert OkwuegbunamTE2112083.5%52.5%32.4%6.3%9.5%0.574.0
Kendall HintonWR112702711.8%57.5%43.2%3.1%4.3%1.1727.0
Eric SaubertTE10002711.8%25.0%47.3%3.1%10.0%0.0027.0
Mike BooneRB100020.9%27.5%18.9%3.1%9.1%0.002.0
Eric TomlinsonTE000000.0%17.5%47.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Andrew BeckFB/TE000000.0%7.5%36.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
KJ HamlerWR000000.0%25.0%25.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Montrell WashingtonWR000000.0%17.5%18.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

This offense is about as awkward as this clip of Russell Wilson eating a Subway sandwich. It's not pleasant to watch.

It’s still a feeling-out process for these Broncos, but Courtland Sutton is doing just fine. In fact, THRIVING is the current WR16 averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG) so far. He put up another quality 8-97 line on 10 targets.

The rest of the passing game wasn’t so lucky, as after Jerry Jeudy’s 75% routes, nobody else on the offense eclipsed 57% route participation. It’s a very condensed offense to these two targets which is a stark contrast from how we prognosticated this offense operating but injuries to Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler among others changed a few things.

While the offense hasn’t hit its stride quite yet, you can’t really trust anybody outside of Sutton and Jeudy.

 

Week 3 Denver Broncos Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson (for now), Javonte Williams

Dump ‘Em: Go ahead and dump the man whose name we can barely pronounce: Albert Okwuegbunam. He’s in the thick of a dreaded multi-tight end timeshare, and it’s not even with receiving threats. It’s with a bunch of clunky blocking tight ends like Eric Tomlinson and Eric Saubert. If Okwuegbunam can’t separate from those, then that’s gross.

  • Javonte Williams (15 carries, 5 targets) is still the lead dog in this offense over Melvin Gordon (12 carries, 6 targets) but not by much. Even worse is the Broncos adding Mike Boone to the mix. Boone (27% routes, 19% snaps) cutting a slice of the pie (no matter how big it is) is never a good thing for the upside of Williams. Everything is weird in Denver.

 

Detroit Lions

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Josh ReynoldsWR10696017249.3%83.7%79.5%27.0%27.8%2.6717.2
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR967304512.9%76.7%73.1%24.3%27.3%2.215.0
DJ CharkWR6346011733.5%90.7%79.5%16.2%15.4%1.1819.5
T.J. HockensonTE43181144.0%72.1%75.6%10.8%12.9%0.583.5
D'Andre SwiftRB43160-3-0.9%51.2%41.0%10.8%18.2%0.73-0.8
Jamaal WilliamsRB2220041.1%18.6%44.9%5.4%25.0%2.502.0
Craig ReynoldsRB1150-1-0.3%11.6%16.7%2.7%20.0%1.00-1.0
Kalif RaymondWR114010.3%18.6%16.7%2.7%12.5%0.501.0
Brock WrightTE000000.0%11.6%38.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Quintez CephusWR000000.0%4.7%12.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Shane ZylstraTE000000.0%0.0%3.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

D’Andre Swift didn’t look right when he was out on the field, and as a result, he only saw 11 opportunities. In came Jamaal Williams, who handled most of the running back chances and scored two touchdowns on over 100 scrimmage yards. Swift playing in Week 4 is looking pretty bleak, so if you have Williams, he’s a nice start this week against Seattle.

It's hard to hold it against Amon-Ra St. Brown for his “pedestrian” 6-73 line on nine targets, but he was in and out a bunch during this game but ended up with 79% route participation. Ultimately, nothing to be super concerned about going forward with “Sun God”.

Week 3 Detroit Lions Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: D’Andre Swift (when healthy and active), Jamaal Williams (when Swift is out), Amon-Ra St. Brown

Dump ‘Em: D.J. Chark is on the borderline. He’s running plenty of routes, but besides a Week 1 touchdown, he hasn’t done much of anything. Hold in deeper leagues, dump in shallower leagues.

  • T.J. Hockenson is getting harder to start in fantasy lately, but Hockenson should be a fixture in lineups still because of the potential of this offense and the weaker tight end position. Hockenson scored a touchdown to save his day, but he’s averaging six targets per game and somehow is a top-12 tight end through three weeks.

 

Green Bay Packers

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Romeo DoubsWR887312514.1%94.4%88.7%23.5%23.5%2.153.1
Robert TonyanTE76370137.3%61.1%58.1%20.6%31.8%1.681.9
Allen LazardWR644519252.0%88.9%90.3%17.6%18.8%1.4115.3
Aaron JonesRB4311021.1%61.1%62.9%11.8%18.2%0.500.5
AJ DillonRB3260-7-4.0%38.9%53.2%8.8%21.4%0.43-2.3
Randall CobbWR22570105.6%50.0%40.3%5.9%11.1%3.175.0
Tyler DavisTE2226031.7%16.7%30.6%5.9%33.3%4.331.5
Juwann WinfreeWR20003922.0%19.4%21.0%5.9%28.6%0.0019.5
Marcedes LewisTE000000.0%8.3%35.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Josiah DeguaraTE000000.0%8.3%14.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Amari RodgersWR000000.0%2.8%4.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Wheels up baby, we’re cleared for takeoff!

With Sammy Watkins placed on IR and Christian Watson out for Week 3, the receiver room condensed quite a bit, but it gave Romeo Doubs the routes he needed to smash this week, and he did just that. Typical are the Packers to have Doubs on the field, he makes a big play, and then they take him off the field to bring in multiple tight ends. 

NO LONGER.

If Doubs (94.4% route participation in Week 3) doesn’t earn a starter’s share of routes going forward after catching all eight targets for 73 yards and a touchdown? That’s coaching malpractice. Doubs wasn’t just mixed in throughout the game; he made his impact in the opening drive with three immediate targets and capped it off with a touchdown. He set the tone for most of the offensive production the Packers had.

Allen Lazard caught a touchdown for the second time in as many weeks, so Lazard is on pace to be 2020 Robert Tonyan on approximately 70 targets. While you can’t argue with the results, it makes Lazard extremely boom-or-bust and difficult to place into a lineup knowing that if he doesn’t catch a touchdown, he’s an albatross in your fantasy lineup.

 

Week 3 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon

Dump ‘Em: Robert Tonyan had his one game with seven targets in Week 3 and didn’t do that much with them as he scored single-digits in fantasy. Go back through Tonyan’s game logs as he has never earned more than seven targets in a game in his career but has exactly one game of seven targets in each season since 2020.

  • I’m still holding onto Christian Watson as he gives the Packers versatility and juice in this offense and he could prove himself worthy of more snaps and routes the same way Doubs proved in Week 3. But definitely understand cutting bait with him if you need the roster spot for more immediate production. A good comp to make is this: why can’t Watson be the Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Romeo DoubsDavante Adams?

 

Houston Texans

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Brandin CooksWR722206729.8%97.0%86.4%22.6%21.9%0.699.6
Rex BurkheadRB5421010.4%45.5%40.7%16.1%33.3%1.400.2
Nico CollinsWR424105223.1%75.8%67.8%12.9%16.0%1.6413.0
Jordan AkinsTE43311188.0%39.4%28.8%12.9%30.8%2.384.5
Pharaoh BrownTE433102611.6%54.5%81.4%12.9%22.2%1.726.5
Chris MooreWR336302611.6%57.6%52.5%9.7%15.8%3.328.7
Dameon PierceRB2221010.4%27.3%59.3%6.5%22.2%2.330.5
Phillip DorsettWR11150156.7%15.2%22.0%3.2%20.0%3.0015.0
O.J. HowardTE1000198.4%9.1%30.5%3.2%33.3%0.0019.0
Troy HairstonFB000000.0%6.1%28.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

The Texans' passing game is as stagnant as ever — are we surprised? Look, Davis Mills has his moments, but they mostly involve hyper-targeting Brandin Cooks. He only saw seven targets in this one for just two receptions, and 22 yards on a 97% routes share. 

Besides Jordan Akins returning to a heroes’ welcome (and then eventual placement back to the practice squad) with the only passing touchdown the Texans could muster, this isn’t a passing game to target multiple pieces. Just Cooks.

Dameon Pierce saw 22 opportunities, including two targets with 101 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. That’s good.

Pierce also plays for a team that’s going to be in a ton of negative game scripts without a path to a receiving role (almost 60% snaps but only 27% routes) that would give him fantasy utility. That’s bad.

Unless something happens to Burkhead, this kind of game from Pierce is likely his fantasy ceiling without receiving work. He will need touchdowns to buoy his fantasy value, and they will be difficult to come by for the Texans.

 

Week 3 Houston Texans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Brandin Cooks is the closest we’ve got here as a fantasy WR3 with a medium ceiling and a rock-bottom floor. If you’re into that sort of thing.

Dump ‘Em: If anybody was to be dumped, they should have been dumped by now. As in Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan.
 

  • Rex Burkhead currently has a hold on that receiving work that would make Dameon Pierce a true three-down back, and with Burkhead plenty involved in the offense (45% of routes). Without that receiving work for Pierce, he’s a middling RB2, and Burkhead is an RB4 that has utility with the Texans being down most of the time.

 

Indianapolis Colts

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Michael PittmanWR987203422.7%97.7%94.4%25.0%21.4%1.713.8
Nyheim HinesRB65230-7-4.7%51.2%45.1%16.7%27.3%1.05-1.2
Alec PierceWR536107147.3%46.5%45.1%13.9%25.0%3.0514.2
Jonathan TaylorRB53200-2-1.3%58.1%76.1%13.9%20.0%0.80-0.4
Jelani WoodsTE321323221.3%25.6%22.5%8.3%27.3%1.1810.7
Mo Alie-CoxTE319064.0%53.5%59.2%8.3%13.0%0.392.0
Parris CampbellWR2210064.0%88.4%81.7%5.6%5.3%0.263.0
Kylen GransonTE227074.7%27.9%42.3%5.6%16.7%0.583.5
Ashton DulinWR117032.0%20.9%25.4%2.8%11.1%0.783.0
Mike StrachanWR000000.0%9.3%8.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

This Colts passing game is a wasteland besides Michael Pittman. He’s the only thing that works, and even he is a strict volume play. A wide receiver version of David Montgomery, except Pittman is actually pretty good. He runs his typical complement of 95-100% route participation and leads the Colts in targets whenever he’s active, and most weeks, volume is there for him. This week was no exception.

Pittman caught 8-of-9 targets for 72 yards in his return to the lineup, and besides that, it’s the same old song and dance for the Colts. The second target is a roulette wheel of about a dozen players each week, and this week, it landed on the spoke between Nyheim Hines and Alec Pierce. No Colts player outside of Parris Campbell ran more than 58% of the routes, rendering them pretty useless. Even Jelani Woods, who caught two touchdowns but on just 25% of routes.

 

Week 3 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor

Dump ‘Em: If last week’s goose egg didn’t do it for you, perhaps the two targets this week will do it for you. Dump Campbell.

  • Alec Pierce might be the closest thing to a WR2 for the Colts as he earned five targets on just 46% of routes, so he was pretty efficient on a per-route basis. Still, he’s got to get on the field more for it to matter. He ran 67% of routes in Week 1, so let’s get back up to that benchmark and then we’ll talk.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Zay JonesWR11108514523.9%80.0%76.3%28.9%34.4%2.664.1
Christian KirkWR967215730.3%97.5%92.1%23.7%23.1%1.856.3
Marvin JonesWR743319148.4%82.5%68.4%18.4%21.2%1.0013.0
Travis EtienneRB33300-13-6.9%35.0%43.4%7.9%21.4%2.14-4.3
James RobinsonRB33160-10-5.3%52.5%57.9%7.9%14.3%0.76-3.3
Evan EngramTE3190189.6%80.0%76.3%7.9%9.4%0.286.0
Jamal AgnewWR1117063.2%10.0%15.8%2.6%25.0%4.256.0
Chris ManhertzTE000000.0%20.0%47.4%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Dan ArnoldTE000000.0%5.0%10.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Tim JonesWR000000.0%5.0%5.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
JaMycal HastyRB1000-6-3.2%5.0%3.9%2.6%50.0%0.00-6.0
Luke FarrellTE000000.0%2.5%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

I did write last week about getting some adults in the room this season in Jacksonville, and it’s already paying dividends.

Getting Urban Meyer out of there and inserting Doug Pederson has done wonders for Trevor Lawrence and trickled down to the entire offense. Christian Kirk is playing like a star, and we should have known that improving the offensive environment would affect every piece of the offense here. It seems like such a basic concept, but we get fixated on how much money Kirk got in free agency, and then the attention goes off from there.

Even Zay Jones, who many people wrote off already is living his best life with a 10-85-1 line on 11 targets and 80% routes. Dare I say: flex option going forward?

 

Week 3 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Christian Kirk, James Robinson

Dump ‘Em: Nobody to outright dump from the Jaguars, but Evan Engram is inching toward the dump line. He can run all the routes he wants, but he’s gotta produce soon — even at tight end. Kirk and Zay Jones seem to be the top-two targets right now, so Engram is right now stuck as a 2B to Jones' 2A, but probably more of the third target in this offense as it currently stands. I’d hold for another week.

  • Everybody’s favorite medical marvel and resurgent running James Robinson has a stranglehold on most facets of this offense as Travis Etienne mixes in. Etienne isn’t a zero — but we’d definitely like to see him get more work, especially in the passing game. Right now, Etienne is a poor man’s Tony Pollard without more of a conscious effort to get him involved in the offense. He’s a high-end RB3/flex territory guy with obvious contingent value should something happen to Robinson.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR8589011339.6%76.7%69.8%24.2%24.2%2.7014.1
Travis KelceTE845815619.6%86.0%88.9%24.2%21.6%1.577.0
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR744809332.6%81.4%77.8%21.2%20.0%1.3713.3
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB55390-1-0.4%39.5%39.7%15.2%29.4%2.29-0.2
Noah GrayTE2126093.2%30.2%41.3%6.1%15.4%2.004.5
Mecole HardmanWR1120-3-1.1%65.1%68.3%3.0%3.6%0.07-3.0
Jerick McKinnonRB100031.1%46.5%52.4%3.0%5.0%0.003.0
Justin WatsonWR1000155.3%16.3%15.9%3.0%14.3%0.0015.0
Jody FortsonTE000000.0%11.6%12.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Skyy MooreWR000000.0%9.3%12.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Michael BurtonFB000000.0%0.0%7.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Isiah PachecoRB000000.0%4.7%7.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

The Chiefs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against a team that just looks like dust in the Colts in Week 3. An ominous start with Skyy Moore fumbling away a punt and honestly, that game was kind of a donk fest, so it makes sense that the Chiefs also fumbled away the game too.

The “JuJu Smith-Schuster aDOT Report” (patent pending) will have a home under the Chiefs blurb in this article and ALWAYS react wildly to his weekly aDOT. This week, his 14.1-yard aDOT is in the GOOD category with 5-89 on eight targets. I’m just glad that the Chiefs didn’t use him as a line of scrimmage player only in Week 3 as they did in Week 2. Who knows. Maybe I’ll be mad again in Week 4; it seems like it’s an every other week thing.

 

Week 3 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce

Dump ‘Em: Probably best to dump Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is on the borderline. MVS has run 80% routes in all three weeks, but his production is spotty at best to where you don’t ever feel comfortable putting him in your lineup.

  • I’m still holding Skyy Moore because I feel like as long as the wide receivers don’t show out and separate themselves from the pack, the better it looks for Moore to get routes, more playing time, and in turn, meaningful fantasy value. The fumble on the punt return probably didn’t help, but if you drafted him, you should stay the course. Moore was never a Week 1-4 play anyway.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Mack HollinsWR108158113736.8%93.8%97.1%23.8%22.2%3.5113.7
Davante AdamsWR1053617620.4%97.9%100.0%23.8%21.3%0.777.6
Josh JacobsRB6531051.3%56.3%64.3%14.3%22.2%1.150.8
Foster MoreauTE53440379.9%33.3%50.0%11.9%31.3%2.757.4
Darren WallerTE532204913.2%87.5%72.9%11.9%11.9%0.529.8
Keelan ColeWR411206718.0%60.4%57.1%9.5%13.8%0.4116.8
Brandon BoldenRB224010.3%39.6%35.7%4.8%10.5%0.210.5
Jakob JohnsonFB000000.0%8.3%22.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Mack Hollins took full advantage of Hunter Renfrow not playing in Week 3 and parlayed that into a fantastic game (8-158-1 on 10 targets and 94% routes) for the Raiders. He out-produced Davante Adams (5-36-1 on 10 targets) and capitalized on the defensive attention given to more notable receivers like Adams and Darren Waller.

Is Hollins here to stay? Well, he’s certainly been a good split end and real NFL football player, but with the full complement of pass-catchers available for Las Vegas, I can’t see a consistent productive fantasy-friendly role for Hollins. But he should certainly be rostered in many more leagues after his Week 3 performance.

 

Week 3 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Davante Adams, Derek Carr, Darren Waller

Dump ‘Em: Any of the secondary running backs (Brandon Bolden, Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah) you picked up in the event that Josh Jacobs would miss Week 3 with his illness can be cut.

 

 

 

Los Angeles Chargers

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Joshua PalmerWR969906618.9%93.6%93.4%22.0%20.5%2.257.3
Austin EkelerRB88480-14-4.0%53.2%55.7%19.5%32.0%1.92-1.8
Gerald EverettTE622507421.2%72.3%75.4%14.6%17.6%0.7412.3
Mike WilliamsWR6115110931.2%89.4%90.2%14.6%14.3%0.3618.2
DeAndre CarterWR43310257.2%72.3%73.8%9.8%11.8%0.916.3
Jalen GuytonWR326408724.9%27.7%26.2%7.3%23.1%4.9229.0
Sony MichelRB219082.3%12.8%23.0%4.9%33.3%1.504.0
Joshua KelleyRB2260-12-3.4%14.9%21.3%4.9%28.6%0.86-6.0
Zander HorvathFB100061.7%6.4%4.9%2.4%33.3%0.006.0
Tre' McKittyTE000000.0%25.5%31.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Richard RodgersTE000000.0%2.1%4.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Back in my day, the Chargers used to be such a fun offense. They had Keenan Allen running around racking up the volume. They had an awesome young left tackle who was already one of the better linemen in the game. They had a healthy generational quarterback who could do no wrong.

Keenan Allen is hurt. That left tackle (Rashawn Slater) is out for the season. That generational quarterback (Justin Herbert) looked #notgood a week after a rib cartilage fracture.

Mike Williams made one (!) catch all game — luckily it was a touchdown. Josh Palmer was fine (6-99 on nine targets, 94% routes) and Austin Ekeler had to make up a lousy day (and non-commitment) to the run game with eight receptions. There were few winners here if you played for the Chargers here and it was a week to forget.

 

Week 3 Los Angeles Charger Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen (when healthy), Justin Herbert (tougher to put here if he’s playing through his rib cartilage injury), Austin Ekeler

Dump ‘Em: If you’re still lighting the candle for De’Andre Carter when Allen gets back, that candle should be blown out, and you can find a better use for that roster spot. Also, Jalen Guyton was placed on season-ending injured reserve with a torn ACL, so drop him in seasonal leagues if you stashed him.

  • Gerald Everett is still pretty fine and earning targets (six) with 72% route participation. He’s a solid back-end TE1. Admittedly, it doesn’t take much to be a back-end TE1 in fantasy these days, but he has a defined and consistent role with nobody else challenging him for the role. That counts for something, right?

 

Los Angeles Rams

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Cooper KuppWR6444010145.9%100.0%100.0%24.0%22.2%1.6316.8
Allen RobinsonWR522303716.8%92.6%91.7%20.0%20.0%0.927.4
Ben SkowronekWR446603114.1%77.8%85.4%16.0%19.0%3.147.8
Tyler HigbeeTE4461000.0%85.2%93.8%16.0%17.4%2.650.0
Brandon PowellWR33270-9-4.1%18.5%12.5%12.0%60.0%5.40-3.0
Kendall BlantonTE1128062.7%3.7%10.4%4.0%100.0%28.006.0
Darrell HendersonRB100010.5%55.6%50.0%4.0%6.7%0.001.0
Tutu AtwellWR10005324.1%11.1%6.3%4.0%33.3%0.0053.0
Cam AkersRB000000.0%14.8%50.0%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Cooper Kupp? Still #good. Even in a game where Matthew Stafford only had 25 pass attempts, Kupp led the Rams with six targets and 4-44-1 plus a 20-yard rushing touchdown. Life is good when you’re the king.

Tyler Higbee (caught all four targets for 61 yards) and Ben Skowronek (caught all four targets for 66 yards) are taking advantage of Allen Robinson’s lack of production in this offense. He’s almost been worse than 2021, and you could even make the case that he has been. Robinson caught just 2-of-5 targets for just 23 yards, and you could make the case in this hyper-condensed personnel where the Rams only use so many people that Robinson is the fourth target in this offense. 

 

Week 3 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford

Dump ‘Em: You can certainly make the case for dropping Allen Robinson, but I’m willing to give him a slight pass based on the low volume throughout the offense in Week 3. The remaining leash is pretty short though.

  • Tyler Higbee has been pretty serviceable (PPR TE7 so far) at a position in need of volume producers. He’s been the defacto second target in this offense with Robinson’s struggles and with an 87% combined route share in the season’s first three games, I’m almost at the point where you need to be starting him weekly. 

 

Miami Dolphins

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Jaylen WaddleWR64102010357.5%72.7%74.4%30.0%37.5%6.3817.2
Tyreek HillWR423303419.0%90.9%86.0%20.0%20.0%1.658.5
Durham SmytheTE3323084.5%45.5%74.4%15.0%30.0%2.302.7
Raheem MostertRB200010.6%50.0%55.8%10.0%18.2%0.000.5
River CracraftWR11111116.1%27.3%20.9%5.0%16.7%1.8311.0
Mike GesickiTE116000.0%31.8%39.5%5.0%14.3%0.860.0
Chase EdmondsRB116021.1%36.4%44.2%5.0%12.5%0.752.0
Trent SherfieldWR115021.1%77.3%62.8%5.0%5.9%0.292.0
Alec IngoldFB10001810.1%22.7%27.9%5.0%20.0%0.0018.0
Cedrick WilsonWR000000.0%9.1%11.6%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Tanner ConnerTE000000.0%4.5%2.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

What a weird game in which the Buffalo Bills had 92 snaps and Miami only had 43. They only dropped back to pass 22 times, and the volume we were accustomed to has evaporated. Yet, the Dolphins still pulled out a statement win against the Bills.

Week 3, ladies and gentlemen.

Jaylen Waddle was the only player that mattered from a fantasy standpoint as he had a nice 4-102 line on just six targets — which led the team. Tyreek Hill had a down game but in a game with only 22 dropbacks, it’s hard to have a big game unless you’re scoring or hyper-efficient.

 

Week 3 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Dump ‘Em: Bless you if you’re still carrying roster-clogger Mike Gesicki, but in this tight end economy, he’s not worth the squeeze. He had a solid building-block week in Week 2 where he jumped up to 60% routes but cratered back to 32% which was even lower than his Week 1. You can do better.

 

Minnesota Vikings

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
K.J. OsbornWR8573113043.5%78.6%75.0%21.6%24.2%2.2116.3
Adam ThielenWR866118829.4%95.2%97.2%21.6%20.0%1.5311.0
Irv SmithTE623203110.4%59.5%51.4%16.2%24.0%1.285.2
Justin JeffersonWR631403210.7%100.0%100.0%16.2%14.3%0.335.3
C.J. HamFB3215020.7%11.9%18.1%8.1%60.0%3.000.7
Ben EllefsonTE22240144.7%7.1%18.1%5.4%66.7%8.007.0
Johnny MundtTE2223000.0%16.7%38.9%5.4%28.6%3.290.0
Alexander MattisonRB1116031.0%26.2%38.9%2.7%9.1%1.453.0
Jalen ReagorWR1120-1-0.3%2.4%1.4%2.7%100.0%2.00-1.0
Dalvin CookRB000000.0%33.3%61.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Another season, another shoulder injury or some sort for Dalvin Cook, so we’re going to get the yearly addition of Alexander Mattison a bit earlier this season in Week 4. Mattison’s contingent value has always been high for this reason and this season is no different. Against the Saints, fire up Mattison if Cook doesn’t go as a high-end RB2.

For the second week in a row, Justin Jefferson put up a dud (3-14 on six targets). No reason to worry about him as I’m sure he’ll make it up to every fantasy manager down the line. With his lack of production, we saw the production shift over to Adam Thielen (6-61-1 on eight targets, 95% routes) and K.J. Osborn (5-73-1 on eight targets, 79% routes). It was good to see the other pieces get involved here and not tank the entire operation if Jefferson has an off game. 

 

Week 3 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook (when healthy), Adam Thielen (an olive branch to Andrew Cooper)

Dump ‘Em: I’m still on the fence about Irv Smith as he’s (somehow) getting snaps and routes ported over to perennial blocking tight end Johnny Mundt, a former Rams fixture who came over with head coach Kevin O’Connell. I’ll still hold, but his grip on a roster spot in fantasy is waning by the day.

 

New England Patriots

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
DeVante ParkerWR105156021254.5%100.0%97.0%31.3%25.0%3.9021.2
Kendrick BourneWR545807318.8%35.0%27.3%15.6%35.7%4.1414.6
Rhamondre StevensonRB54280102.6%62.5%62.1%15.6%20.0%1.122.0
Jonnu SmithTE4425020.5%37.5%48.5%12.5%26.7%1.670.5
Nelson AgholorWR324107519.3%72.5%75.8%9.4%10.3%1.4125.0
Damien HarrisRB3250-3-0.8%27.5%37.9%9.4%27.3%0.45-1.0
Hunter HenryTE118071.8%70.0%69.7%3.1%3.6%0.297.0
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR1000133.3%75.0%81.8%3.1%3.3%0.0013.0

A tough, tough blow for the Patriots as they’re likely losing quarterback Mac Jones for at least Week 4 but possibly Week 5 as well with a high-ankle sprain.

In comes journeyman quarterback Brian Hoyer to take the reins and the offense (as #notgreat as the passing game already was) gets a sizable downgrade for fantasy purposes.

Jakobi Meyers and his 20% target share were out for this one with a knee injury, and he’s already practicing in a limited fashion, so any reinforcements that can make it onto the field against the Packers will be a welcomed sight.

We finally got a quality outing from DeVante Parker too with a crazy 212 air yards leading to a 5-156 game on 10 targets. He runs virtually every route in this offense.

 

Week 3 New England Patriots Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Jakobi Meyers would be the closest thing to a stud in this offense with his target share and consistency as the top receiving option in this offense. But he's still more of a WR3 option and probably a shakier floor with Hoyer at quarterback.

Dump ‘Em: Probably a good time as any to cut bait with Hunter Henry and Nelson Agholor. It stinks with Henry, but with him and Jonnu Smith sharing a role in a low-volume passing game, it doesn’t make sense to hold him.

  • Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are still a full-blown committee, but with Stevenson getting as much of the rushing work and much more of the routes (61% to 27% for Harris), the gap is getting wider by the week. Harris is still useful and has contingent value, but I want the player that is getting the receiving work versus the guy who could get game-scripted out if the team gets down. #Vote4Rhamondre.

 

New Orleans Saints

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Chris OlaveWR139147016435.5%92.9%76.8%33.3%33.3%3.7712.6
Alvin KamaraRB72120265.6%61.9%69.6%17.9%26.9%0.463.7
Tre'Quan SmithWR54105012627.3%57.1%60.9%12.8%20.8%4.3825.2
Michael ThomasWR55490408.7%69.0%68.1%12.8%17.2%1.698.0
Jarvis LandryWR522207716.7%33.3%30.4%12.8%35.7%1.5715.4
Adam TrautmanTE119091.9%26.2%63.8%2.6%9.1%0.829.0
Nick VannettTE115030.6%4.8%7.2%2.6%50.0%2.503.0
Marquez CallawayWR114140.9%23.8%18.8%2.6%10.0%0.404.0
Juwan JohnsonTE1000132.8%57.1%68.1%2.6%4.2%0.0013.0
Mark IngramRB000000.0%16.7%33.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Adam PrenticeFB000000.0%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (foot) both left Week 3’s game, so “huck it, chuck it, he's down there somewhere" football ensued with Chris Olave converting some of those air yards into actual yards (147) on a starter’s share of routes (93%). Olave looks like the real deal here but isn’t being talked up like Drake London. Maybe we should change that here as we have an offense that’s clearly willing to throw the ball deep with Jameis Winston (league-leading 11.5 aDOT), and Olave might be the main beneficiary.

After 12 targets in his first two contests, Juwan Johnson *sad trombone* failed to catch his only target (on 57% routes — a season low) in Week 3. In related news, Adam Trautman’s routes are getting upticks each week. Perhaps the tight end room in New Orleans isn’t as finalized as it seemed even in Week 1. 

Long story short, tight end is volatile in fantasy football.

 

Week 3 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave

Dump ‘Em: N/A

  • I don’t know if I’d dump Johnson quite yet, but the declining route percentage is a bit concerning. I’d give him another week.
  • Landry is still fine as a low-end WR3, but his production has declined from an excellent Week 1 where he put up 9-114-0 on 80% routes.
  • Despite Tre’Quan Smith’s Week 3 outburst where he reeled in 4-of-5 targets for 105 yards, much of that was due to Thomas and Landry being out. These injuries would have to keep both players out for me to consider Smith, and even then, it’s a tall order to trust Smith in fantasy lineups.

 

New York Giants

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Sterling ShepardWR1054909845.8%85.7%80.6%31.3%23.8%1.179.8
Daniel BellingerTE5440073.3%46.9%59.7%15.6%21.7%1.741.4
Richie JamesWR543604119.2%81.6%73.6%15.6%12.5%0.908.2
Saquon BarkleyRB44450-11-5.1%71.4%91.7%12.5%11.4%1.29-2.8
David SillsWR422004822.4%57.1%62.5%12.5%14.3%0.7112.0
Kenny GolladayWR30002712.6%38.8%33.3%9.4%15.8%0.009.0
Chris MyarickTE116041.9%14.3%29.2%3.1%14.3%0.864.0
Tanner HudsonTE000000.0%40.8%37.5%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Matt BreidaRB000000.0%6.1%11.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

A tough blow to an already thin wide receiver group is the loss of Sterling Shepard for the season with a torn ACL, who went down on the last offensive snap for the Giants without contact.

Who will pick up the pieces here in fantasy? Well, it might help to have guys like Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson in the fold, but look for a mix of guys like Richie James, David Sills and the mercurial Kenny Golladay. Still, it’s a passing game you shouldn’t really have a sizable investment in. Not that you should have before but I feel the need to make that more abundantly clear now.

 

Week 3 New York Giants Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Saquon Barkley

Dump ‘Em: Safely drop the injured Sterling Shepard from rosters as he’s out for the remainder of the 2022 season.

  • If we’re in deeper leagues, James could at least be a desperation flex option as he’s jumped up in routes from 60% in Week 2 to over 80% last Monday night. He’s averaged almost six targets per game this season, and with targets opening up now due to Shepard’s injury, he’s likely first in line to receive them this week.
  • Keep holding Toney and Robinson as they provide a talent boost to the Giants’ receiver corps once they get on the field. It’s still not a great offense to target, but we’ve seen Toney flash in spurts and Robinson was a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, so bigger things are expected of him.

 

New York Jets

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Breece HallRB1165306715.2%48.2%51.3%22.9%40.7%1.966.1
Garrett WilsonWR1066009421.4%66.1%62.8%20.8%27.0%1.629.4
Elijah MooreWR10449018642.3%94.6%93.6%20.8%18.9%0.9218.6
Tyler ConklinTE88840225.0%73.2%79.5%16.7%19.5%2.052.8
Corey DavisWR522706915.7%87.5%87.2%10.4%10.2%0.5513.8
Michael CarterRB2170-3-0.7%33.9%48.7%4.2%10.5%0.37-1.5
C.J. UzomahTE115051.1%23.2%34.6%2.1%7.7%0.385.0
Braxton BerriosWR100000.0%28.6%30.8%2.1%6.3%0.000.0
Jeff SmithWR000000.0%8.9%10.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Ty JohnsonRB000000.0%1.8%1.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Rarely do we see a collective groan over a starting quarterback coming back in to replace the backup, but that’s what I did when Zach Wilson was tabbed to start for the Jets in Week 4. Because of that, it’s going to be a kind of a reset with how the targets are distributed since we know that Joe Flacco had a penchant for dumping passes off to the running backs.

For the first week this season, Breece Hall outsnapped and ran more routes (51%, 48%) than Michael Carter (49%, 34%) did. Carter did get more carries as that part of the split did remain closer. 

Garrett Wilson is seeing tons of targets (24 in the last two weeks) on a non-starter’s share of routes (75% in Week 2, 66% in Week 3) which is pretty wild and should result in more routes. Again, the offense hits a bit of a reset with Wilson back in the fold.

 

Week 3 New York Jets Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: No “studs” per se, but Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and to a lesser extent, Michael Carter should be in your lineups weekly under normal circumstances.

Dump ‘Em: Joe Flacco in Superflex formats or 16-team 1QB leagues should be dropped.

  • There will be some target loss in New York with the quarterback change, so I’m worried about who gets the short end of the stick. It just might be Tyler Conklin, who has admittedly been quite productive in fantasy over the first three weeks. Now is the prime time to sell high in a trade to send Conklin away. I can’t imagine him averaging eight targets per game on a team with this many weapons for the rest of the season. His routes already dipped to 73% from 88% in Week 2 with C.J. Uzomah back, so adding the Wilson factor on top of that might be the tea leaves you should be reading with Conklin.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
DeVonta SmithWR128169120553.0%92.7%88.6%35.3%31.6%4.4517.1
A.J. BrownWR10585113033.6%92.7%80.0%29.4%26.3%2.2413.0
Dallas GoedertTE43261-1-0.3%56.1%64.3%11.8%17.4%1.13-0.3
Zach PascalWR3318061.6%36.6%42.9%8.8%20.0%1.202.0
Jack StollTE214010.3%36.6%52.9%5.9%13.3%0.270.5
Grant CalcaterraTE11400184.7%12.2%24.3%2.9%20.0%8.0018.0
Quez WatkinsWR1000297.5%56.1%47.1%2.9%4.3%0.0029.0
Miles SandersRB11-20-1-0.3%46.3%58.6%2.9%5.3%-0.11-1.0
Kenneth GainwellRB000000.0%39.0%31.4%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Boston ScottRB000000.0%9.8%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Jalen Hurts is the league MVP after two weeks. Over Lamar Jackson. Fight me.

Note: (Please don’t actually fight me, I’m weak.)

Still, what Hurts is doing is incredible and was the thesis all along with why Josh Allen went from an inaccurate rushing quarterback to a superstar. The team showed faith in him, build around him, acquired a star wide receiver, and the rest is history. The Eagles followed that path to a tee when they got A.J. Brown on a draft-day trade from Tennessee.

Luckily, Hurts has more weapons at his disposal, like DeVonta Smith, who crushed in Week 3 to the tune of 8-169-1 on a blistering 205 air yards (53% of team share) and a staggering 4.45 yards per route run. The Eagles’ attack was centered around Brown and Smith — as it should be. Dallas Goedert caught a touchdown to save his day here despite leaving the game for a stretch, which explains the low 56% routes share on the day.

 

Week 3 Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert

Dump ‘Em: N/A

  • We’re still in the throes of a committee here with Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell with some Boston Scott sprinkled in, but Sanders (59% snaps) got the bulk of the work on the ground which is the norm here. Not a lot of running back targets to speak of as Sanders and Gainwell have six apiece. There really hasn’t been much of a “Gainwell” game to speak of since the Eagles have been out in front of games, but he’s at the very least a useful hold right now if you have the room to stash him.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Diontae JohnsonWR11884014637.2%100.0%98.3%34.4%33.3%2.5513.3
George PickensWR7339010125.8%87.9%76.3%21.9%24.1%1.3414.4
Chase ClaypoolWR633508621.9%100.0%93.2%18.8%18.2%1.0614.3
Pat FreiermuthTE424106717.1%63.6%76.3%12.5%19.0%1.9516.8
Najee HarrisRB3350-5-1.3%45.5%79.7%9.4%20.0%0.33-1.7
Jaylen WarrenRB1130-3-0.8%9.1%20.3%3.1%33.3%1.00-3.0
Zach GentryTE000000.0%12.1%39.0%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Connor HeywardTE000000.0%3.0%10.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Gunner OlszewskiWR000000.0%0.0%5.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Derek WattFB000000.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

Mike Tomlin is getting awfully curmudgeonly in his autumn years.

Tomlin immediately shot down any notion of a quarterback switch from Mitch Trubisky to first-round pick Kenny Pickett, so there’s that. For fantasy purposes, you truly hate to see it, as while there are going to be games where Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth and company have their target volume and put up solid days, the inefficiency that comes with the conscious, on-purpose decision to start Trubisky in NFL games that count in the regular season puts a cap on any sort of fantasy ceiling.

Although if we didn’t have Trubisky, we wouldn’t have had this all-time catch by George Pickens.

Target distribution was very narrow against the Browns with only six pass-catchers earning a target. While Claypool and Pickens are hitting route percentage benchmarks that we want, there are not too many weeks where this passing game can support more than one receiver, and that’s Johnson (8-84 on 11 targets and 100% route participation) in most weeks.

 

Week 3 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris

Dump ‘Em: Chase Claypool. Not enough meat on the bone for him to be relevant right now and hasn’t finished above WR49 this season.

  • Freiermuth is still a pretty much upside play at a weak tight end position that needs an infusion of youth. He scored no less than 12 fantasy points before this week’s relative dud, and his routes slipped a bit to 63% from the 77% he averaged in the first two weeks of 2022. Still stay the course.
  • I’m still holding Pickens as well even though as I noted before, there’s not enough meat on the bone in the Steelers offense, but I’m typically youth-forward, and as we’ve seen with rookies, some may take time to assert themselves. Not everybody can be a Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or Chris Olave that hits immediately.

 

 

 

San Francisco 49ers

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTPlayer RoutesPlayer Snaps
Deebo SamuelWR857305623.1%87.9%78.6%27.6%27.6%2.527.02944
Brandon AiyukWR8339111447.1%90.9%89.3%27.6%26.7%1.3014.33050
George KittleTE54280114.5%81.8%91.1%17.2%18.5%1.042.22751
Jeff WilsonRB3331083.3%57.6%73.2%10.3%15.8%1.632.71941
Jauan JenningsWR3150229.1%51.5%46.4%10.3%17.6%0.297.31726
Kyle JuszczykFB11240239.5%45.5%62.5%3.4%6.7%1.6023.01535
Ray-Ray McCloudWR1111083.3%21.2%17.9%3.4%14.3%1.578.0710
Charlie WoernerTE000000.0%6.1%14.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.028
Danny GrayWR000000.0%9.1%10.7%0.0%0.0%0.000.036
Jordan MasonRB000000.0%6.1%8.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.025
Ross DwelleyTE000000.0%6.1%7.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.024

I had to go back to watch this game because I skipped the first half or so to watch “House of the Dragon”. Looking back, I think I made the right choice.

Jimmy Garoppolo was not particularly good here with two turnovers. Frankly, I’m just happy George Kittle (82% routes, 4-28 on five targets) made it through an NFL game unscathed. A great sign for him and the offense moving forward.

Also, a good sign is Deebo Samuel getting back up to a normal aDOT of 7.0 yards after a negative aDOT last week and some more downfield work with a 5-73 line on eight targets. As I said last week, Garoppolo normalizes the passing game a bit and eliminates some of the questions we had when Trey Lance was starting. While Deebo will get those rushing looks and line-of-scrimmage targets, we also love seeing him get downfield.

 

Week 3 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle 

Dump ‘Em: Nobody I’m outright recommending to dump, but the outlooks on any backup running backs (Jordan Mason, Marlon Mack, the injured Tyrion Davis-Price) for San Francisco are getting a bit bleaker with Jeff Wilson handling almost ¾ of the snaps as he did in Week 3.

  • Brandon Aiyuk caught two of his three receptions on the team’s second drive with the second being a short three-yard touchdown. His final catch was the first play of the team’s third drive, and that was that outside of a bunch of missed connections throughout the game. He was fine with his volume of routes and deep shots downfield (almost half of the 49ers’ air yards on a 14.3-yard aDOT), but he’s going to be more hit or miss than the other 49ers options, and for that, he’s more of a middle-of-the-road WR3.

 

Seattle Seahawks

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
DK MetcalfWR12564115037.5%95.7%93.0%27.9%27.3%1.4512.5
Tyler LockettWR11976012330.8%84.8%81.7%25.6%28.2%1.9511.2
Marquise GoodwinWR423105614.0%47.8%42.3%9.3%18.2%1.4114.0
Noah FantTE44270215.3%50.0%54.9%9.3%17.4%1.175.3
Will DisslyTE33341276.8%41.3%60.6%7.0%15.8%1.799.0
Kenneth Walker IIIRB33140-7-1.8%8.7%12.7%7.0%75.0%3.50-2.3
Colby ParkinsonTE22440256.3%41.3%36.6%4.7%10.5%2.3212.5
DeeJay DallasRB2217030.8%17.4%21.1%4.7%25.0%2.131.5
Penny HartWR1115071.8%6.5%8.5%2.3%33.3%5.007.0
Rashaad PennyRB1130-5-1.3%54.3%69.0%2.3%4.0%0.12-5.0
Dee EskridgeWR000000.0%13.0%16.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Travis HomerRB000000.0%0.0%2.8%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

The box above should tell you everything you need to know about the Seahawks’ passing game: condensed. To the max. Everything flows through Tyler Lockett (9-76, 11 targets, 85% routes) and DK Metcalf (5-64-1, 12 targets, 95% routes) for the majority of the weeks. The wide receiver duo combined for 53% of Seattle’s targets and 68% of the air yards in a Week 3 matchup against the Falcons where Geno Smith had 44 pass attempts. 

Surprisingly, Seattle’s pass rate has been much higher than expected as they’ve passed at the seventh-highest clip (66%) in the NFL so far. Despite increased volume, the quality of the entire passing game is still #notgood. At least some of the inefficiency from Smith can be masked a bit more now with pure passing volume.

 

Week 3 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: DK Metcalf

Dump ‘Em: Noah Fant is an afterthought in this offense and is in a three-way timeshare at tight end with Will Dissly (somehow PPR TE11 on the season — no, don't pick up him and his less than three targets per game) and Colby Parkinson. No thanks.

  • After a dud Week 1, Lockett has been pretty superb with 11 targets apiece and 9 grabs each in the last two games. He’s been his old reliable self and should be in lineups weekly as a mid-range WR3. He’s capable of this volume even with a subpar quarterback, but just know that this passing offense has the range of outcomes in it to just crater and sink everybody.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Russell GageWR13128716026.2%84.4%80.0%32.5%34.2%2.294.6
Cameron BrateTE655203917.0%84.4%89.2%15.0%15.8%1.376.5
Leonard FournetteRB65350-8-3.5%71.1%90.8%15.0%18.8%1.09-1.3
Scotty MillerWR51404218.3%84.4%80.0%12.5%13.2%0.118.4
Breshad PerrimanWR434405423.6%66.7%72.3%10.0%13.3%1.4713.5
Cole BeasleyWR43120156.6%13.3%13.8%10.0%66.7%2.003.8
Jaelon DardenWR11250156.6%33.3%27.7%2.5%6.7%1.6715.0
Kyle RudolphTE11120125.2%8.9%13.8%2.5%25.0%3.0012.0
Ko KieftTE000000.0%6.7%16.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Rachaad WhiteRB000000.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Kaylon GeigerWR000000.0%4.4%6.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

I’ll feel a bit better about Tampa once they start getting their wide receivers healthy (and Mike Evans back from suspension). This was not a great performance, but given the opponent and team factors with injuries, it was an admirable effort.

Signing Cole Beasley and using him right away tells me how dire their situation was in Week 3. Having to meet the deep and talented Packers secondary didn’t exactly help matters.

Russell Gage was the star here with 13 targets and 12-87-1 on 84% routes. There weren’t a lot of deep shots in this offense as the Packers kept everything pretty much in front of them, which is why Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette were the next leading target earners in Week 3.

Simply put: it was not a game for the passing offenses and especially not Tampa’s outside of Gage. Gage’s performance might be the only thing to take away here as when Tampa Bay is running under normal circumstances, Scotty Miller won’t be running 84% of routes, and Breshad Perriman won’t be running 67% of routes.

 

Week 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans (when not suspended), Chris Godwin (when healthy)

Dump ‘Em: With some of the wide receivers hopefully returning like Evans and Julio Jones in the next week or two, we’re hoping to get healthy news about them. You can go ahead and dump Miller and Perriman when the starters are deemed healthy and active.

 

Tennessee Titans

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Robert WoodsWR948509954.4%89.3%72.4%34.6%36.0%3.4011.0
Derrick HenryRB6558000.0%46.4%74.1%23.1%46.2%4.460.0
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR334003619.8%64.3%56.9%11.5%16.7%2.2212.0
Geoff SwaimTE33191126.6%42.9%69.0%11.5%25.0%1.584.0
Austin HooperTE22190105.5%42.9%41.4%7.7%16.7%1.585.0
Treylon BurksWR211302413.2%96.4%69.0%7.7%7.4%0.4812.0
Dontrell HilliardRB1130010.5%25.0%24.1%3.8%14.3%4.291.0
Kevin RaderTE000000.0%7.1%25.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Cody HollisterWR000000.0%3.6%24.1%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Chigoziem OkonkwoTE000000.0%10.7%17.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Tory CarterFB000000.0%3.6%10.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Josh GordonWR000000.0%7.1%10.3%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Hassan HaskinsRB000000.0%3.6%6.9%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

I’m not sure what kind of bizarro world this is when Derrick Henry is being used more like Christian McCaffrey than McCaffrey is in Carolina. But that’s where we are in America.

Having Henry in the mix in passing situations has never been the modus operandi of the Titans throughout his career, but hey, if they’re going to let get out on some creative pass plays to get him in the open field, who are we to say no? The Titans need to push the creativity anyway because they are so skill-deficient on offense compared to most of the league.

Robert Woods has his most productive game as a Titan with still an inefficient 4-85 on nine targets (89% routes), but these are going to be few and far between in this offense. 

We’re playing the long game here with Treylon Burks, and one benchmark we hope can get hit each week is his route participation which hit a season-high 96%. He only caught one of his two targets, but running full-time routes share is the first hurdle to jump. Look back to Week 1 where he only ran a total of 13 routes but earned five targets. We know there’s target-earning potential here; it’s going to happen. Stay the course and if you are able to, buy low on Burks. One dynamic player like Burks in an offense can transform it and lift all boats — that’s the thesis with Burks in 2022. It’ll just take a little time.

 

Week 3 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Derrick Henry

Dump ‘Em: Austin Hooper can be safely dropped as he’s fallen into a timeshare with Geoff Swaim of all people. Gross.

 

Washington Commanders

NamePosTargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOT
Curtis SamuelWR1074803911.7%85.5%83.1%23.8%21.3%1.023.9
Terry McLaurinWR96102014744.3%89.1%88.3%21.4%18.4%2.0816.3
J.D. McKissicRB96320216.3%54.5%53.2%21.4%30.0%1.072.3
Jahan DotsonWR8210010130.4%87.3%87.0%19.0%16.7%0.2112.6
Logan ThomasTE3250123.6%63.6%64.9%7.1%8.6%0.144.0
Dax MilneWR1112072.1%7.3%6.5%2.4%25.0%3.007.0
Antonio GibsonRB112010.3%27.3%44.2%2.4%6.7%0.131.0
John BatesTE100041.2%10.9%26.0%2.4%16.7%0.004.0
Armani RogersTE000000.0%16.4%18.2%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Dyami BrownWR000000.0%14.5%15.6%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Cam SimsWR000000.0%10.9%10.4%0.0%0.0%0.000.0
Jonathan WilliamsRB000000.0%1.8%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.000.0

After facing defenses that aren’t that great (Jaguars and Lions) in the first two weeks of 2022, the other shoe dropped for Carson Wentz in Week 3. The only touchdown scored was on the ground (Antonio Gibson), and the Eagles thoroughly handled the Commanders jumping out to a 24-0 lead before a garbage-time safety, and the Gibson touchdown finished out the scoring.

36 of 42 team targets (85.7%) were handled by Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, and Jahan Dotson — I’d consider this consolidation.

McKissic is the easiest to sort out here as when the Commanders get down or in obvious passing situations, he’s in there. That was the case in Week 3.

 

Week 3 Washington Commanders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs (taking some liberties here): I don’t know if I would consider anybody a bonafide stud or somebody you HAVE to start weekly, but there are a handful of quality options for sure. Samuel and McLaurin should be started in most leagues where Dotson should be a regular flex option.

Dump ‘Em: Nobody I’m dumping either because even Logan Thomas can be useful in fantasy at a weak tight end position. He just needs to bump his routes up (59% on the season) closer to pre-injury levels where he was in on almost every single snap and running almost every route consistently.  

  • The Gibson/McKissic running back workload split could get a new wrinkle with the return of Brian Robinson about a month’s time after he was shot. Robinson should be involved but to what degree? If he’s available in leagues, he’s worth adding to take a peek and see if anything fantasy-friendly materializes with him, but it could take a couple of weeks.

 

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