Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks October 3: Jesus Luzardo Takes on the Philadelphia Phillies
Colby Conway brings you top MLB picks and player props at Underdog Fantasy for Saturday, October 3rd, featuring Jesus Luzardo and Tyler Glasnow.
If you were looking for some MLB player props on the opening day of the Wild Card Round for the 2023 MLB Playoffs, you have certainly come to the right place. With many intriguing matchups, a few names stood above the rest for me, and my favorite player props of the day feature Jesus Luzardo of the Miami Marlins taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, and Tampa Bay Rays’ right-hander Tyler Glasnow squaring off against the Texas Rangers on the other side of the MLB playoff bracket.
Our MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs. Pitcher page will help uncover the best matchups for MLB player props, best bets, and MLB DFS lineups for today’s playoff action. Without further ado, let's dive into my top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Tuesday, October 3rd.
Jesus Luzardo, Miami Marlins - HIGHER than 5.5 Strikeouts
For the 2023 season, Luzardo was great, posting a 3.63 ERA with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate across 32 starts. In two starts against the Phillies this season, he logged at least six innings in each start, totaling 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings of work. After a bit of a lull in the middle of August, he bounced back in September, where one bad start against the Brewers inflated his numbers, but he still posted a 10.13 K/9 over his final five starts of the season. In September, only the Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox had a higher strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers than the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies have plenty of pop in the lineup, but Luzardo was excellent at limiting home runs in 2023 (1.11 HR/9), but he served up just one home run over his final seven starts of the year, spanning 41.1 innings pitched (0.22 HR/9). Taking a look at the Philadelphia lineup, there is not a lot of good BvP data against Luzardo, and on any given day, Luzardo can put up double-digit strikeouts, and in a hurry.
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays - LOWER than 37.5 Fantasy Points
Glasnow’s strikeouts numbers down the stretch look amazing, I won’t deny that, but mixed in there is the fact that he allowed 15 earned runs on 22 hits and 10 walks over 26.1 innings pitched, good for a 5.13 ERA. Now, his 2.69 FIP and .365 BABIP paint a different picture, but this Texas offense is no easy task, especially if left-handed hitters have had some levels of success against you. Lefties haven’t crushed Glasnow by any means, but there are some respectable marks mixed in there, like a .416 SLG, .247 BAA, and 1.29 HR/9. Glasnow has tortured right-handed hitters this season, but this Texas lineup has multiple prominent left-handed bats that could give Glasnow some fits, especially if he walks multiple batters like he’s done in three of his last four starts.
While it is sometimes comparing apples to oranges, we have to talk about Glasnow’s track record in the postseason. Through nine career postseason starts, dating back to 2019, he has a 5.75 ERA with a 5.25 FIP, 4.43 BB/9, and 2.21 HR/9. What if Kevin Cash has a quick hook on Glasnow in this one? What if the Rangers bats get to him? What if his postseason struggles continue? Too many questions for me here.