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f0rsakeN – Over 72.5 Fantasy Score vs. OpTic Gaming - 11:00 AM ET

Series Odds:

OpTic (-135) | Paper Rex (+105)

OpTic -1.5 (+190) | Paper Rex +1.5 (-265)

Projected Agents:

Neon, Yoru (Other possibilities: Chamber, Jett)

Projected Maps:

OG bans Icebox

PRX bans Split

OG picks Fracture

PRX picks Bind

OG bans Ascent

PRX bans Haven

Breeze remains.

Prediction:

F0rsakeN has been one of the most aggressive players at this event. He ranks second in opening kills per round (0.21), second in kills per round (0.93), third in ADR (163.2), and fourth in ACS (252.3). This is a winnable match-up for Paper Rex as only slight underdogs with a +105 moneyline, and f0rsakeN should be very active on the map, taking plenty of duels. If OpTic don’t ban Bind to start, then we can be sure that Paper Rex will likely pick it as it is a very strong map for them, and that could mean that f0rsakeN plays Yoru again. He posted 44 fantasy score against Fnatic on Bind last Sunday, and prior to that, he posted 52 fantasy score in a dominant 13-2 win against Team Secret as Yoru. Fracture makes sense as the map pick for OpTic in this spot, which means that f0rsakeN will likely play Neon. Last week, f0rsakeN led the server in ACS on Fracture against Guild in an overtime victory, which led to 56 fantasy score. Prior to that, he posted 53 fantasy score in a win against XERXIA as Neon on Fracture. The projected map pool looks excellent for f0rsakeN, though we could maybe see a curveball pick in this important playoff match-up. Either way, f0rsakeN should be able to smash this total with his aggression as long as Paper Rex are able to compete, and I think they can give OpTic a run for their money in front of the Copenhagen crowd. 

 

Derke – Over 78.5 Fantasy Score vs. FunPlus Phoenix - 2:00 PM ET

Series Odds:

Fnatic (-165) | FunPlus Phoenix (+125)

Fnatic -1.5 (+165) | FunPlus Phoenix +1.5 (-230)

Projected Agents:

Raze, Chamber

Projected Maps:

Fnatic bans Breeze

FPX bans Icebox/Bind

Fnatic picks Bind/Icebox

FPX picks Ascent

Fnatic bans Split

FPX bans Fracture

Haven remains.

Prediction:

When it comes to aggression, Derke leads all players at the event, at least in terms of opening duels with (0.23) opening kills per round. Derke has had some below average performances at this event, particularly in Fnatic’s match-up against Paper Rex, yet he still ranks top six in terms of ACS (249.3). There is a chance that we see the same map pool here as the one Fnatic played against Paper Rex, which would put Derke as Raze on Bind and Chamber on Ascent. That series was abysmal for Derke and Fnatic as a whole as they got swept 0-2, yet Derke still managed 69 fantasy score across those two maps. 69 fantasy score is a pretty impressive ‘floor’ for a below average outing, and Derke should have much more upside here with Fnatic expected to win at least one of the first two maps as -165 moneyline favorites. If FPX do float through Icebox, then Fnatic will absolutely pick it as it is one of their strongest maps by far, and Derke would be back on Chamber. Derke has averaged 0.90 kills per round across nine maps played on Chamber in the past month, though he has more upside in terms of assists with Raze (0.26 assists per round as Raze vs. 0.13 assists per round as Chamber). Either way, Derke should be able to exceed this projection as long as Fnatic win some rounds. I have Fnatic winning here in a tight series, and Derke’s aggression should produce a high volume of kills and assists.