Esports PrizePicks CS:GO DFS Playbook: July 15
Tony Lavender provides his top prop plays over at PrizePicks for Friday's slate of CS:GO action with the PrizePicks Playbook!
Welcome to the PrizePicks CS:GO DFS Playbook provided by Fantasy Alarm! In this article, I will provide my two favorite prop bets from the PrizePicks CS:GO Projections posted on their app!
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Astralis (World rank: #11) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #14) – 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-130) | MOUZ (+105)
MOUZ removes Dust2
Astralis removes Vertigo
MOUZ picks Inferno
Astralis picks Nuke
MOUZ removes Overpass
Astralis removes Mirage
Ancient is left over
PrizePicks Prop Selections:
blameF - Over 40.0 Kills vs. MOUZ (Maps 1-2)
Raw Kill Projection: 43.9 Kills (0.82 kills per round past month * 53.5 projected rounds combined maps one and two)
- Astralis will likely pick Nuke considering it is their most played map with this lineup and they also have their highest win rate on it, plus they picked it last time against MOUZ and won. Nuke is tied with Mirage as blameF's best map in the past month with a 1.42 Rating, and he has averaged 0.86 kills per round across five maps played during that time. He has been the most aggressive player on Astralis in opening duels taking 25.5% of his teams attempts, and he has found plenty of success with 0.19 opening kills per round in the past month on Nuke. My only concern with this map would be the potential of MOUZ dominating CT Nuke to start and Astralis lose a quick one, but I really don't expect that to happen given the form that Astralis have shown on Nuke, plus blameF has managed to be pretty consistent regardless of his teams success.
- MOUZ may look to Inferno here considering Astralis will likely ban Vertigo to start. BlameF has been in excellent form on Inferno in the past month as well, leading Astralis with a 1.30 Rating and 0.81 kills per round across three maps played. He has gotten 20 or more kills three out of the last four times on Inferno.
torzsi - Under 39.0 Kills vs. Astralis (Maps 1-2)
Raw Kill Projection: 38.5 Kills (0.72 kills per round past month * 53.5 projected rounds combined maps one and two)
- torzsi has been solid on Nuke, but his form has dropped against strong teams as he is averaging a 1.13 Rating with 0.70 kills per round across six maps played on Nuke against top 20 teams in the past month. Three of those maps were losses for MOUZ, and torzsi had 17, 12, and 11 kills in the three losses. Now consider the fact that Astralis have won six in a row on Nuke with an 82% 5v4 conversion rate during that time, and things really start to look bleak for torzsi. MOUZ even had the luxury of starting CT nuke against ENCE and torzsi still only managed 11 kills in that 8-16 loss. To his credit, he has been aggressive in taking opening duels, but I mainly expect him to struggle in this match-up against one of the best Nuke teams in the world.
- On Inferno, torzsi is less aggressive than other maps as he has only taken the second least opening duels on his team across 14 maps played in the past three months with 18% of the attempts, far behind frozen, who is at 26.3% during that time. Torzsi has a 1.07 Rating with 0.68 kills per round across six maps played on Inferno in the past month, and when we filter to just top-20 match-ups, those numbers drop to 1.05 and 0.67, respectively. Inferno would not be ideal for torzsi if MOUZ do pick it.
BlameF has been incredible as of late and is coming off of an MVP performance at Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022 last month. Overall, I think 40.0 kills is too low of a projection for blameF in most spots, especially this one with Astralis as a slight favorite and the maps looking favorable. I'm expecting Astralis to win at least one, or possibly both, of the first two maps played. 39.0 kills is already a bit high of a projection for torzsi, but especially against an elite team in a LAN environment with a live audience. Astralis are the veteran team here and they should thrive in this spot. I think blameF can hit the over even if a lot of rounds are not played, so I have no problem pairing his over with torzsi's under.