The UFC is treating us well these last two weeks with back to back PPV bangers. Here we have another card with two belts on the line and an undercard stocked with great matchups. As was the case last week, you’re likely facing at least one stack in cash games, if not two. There’s also another main event underdog priced far too low in Colby Covington if you want to take the risk there.


Main Event
Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington9300/6900-Stackability: Safe-320/ +250+120/+650
This is low-key the most heated rivalry in the UFC. Mostly because of Colby’s vitriol but Usman leans into. The first fight was extremely close despite the emphatic punctuation of Usman’s late KO win. One judge even had it score Colby’s way at that point. The lack of wrestling was unsurprising. Both know how good the other is in that department. Both felt they could win it on the feet. It will be interesting to see if Colby mixes it up given that Usman matched his striking pace and carries more power. All signs point to this being another very close fight that will head into the championship rounds and have a possibly controversial outcome. The line value and GPP leverage will certainly be the Covington side. Still, I have to pick Usman and his elite athleticism that has blossomed with Trevor Wittman coaching his striking. A must stack in cash.
Dustin Jacoby9600John AllanSomewhat-Safe-380-115
Jacoby was ready to step in on less than a week’s notice as a veteran kickboxer with experience in same night tournaments. Allan will be majorly outmatched on the feet by him. His main risk is that he’s going to run out of gas faster without a full camp and that Allan has shown the ability to wrestle at times. Jacoby has worked hard to fix his horrible wrestling but it will always be a liability. All in all, a risky profile for the most expensive fighter.
Melsik Baghdasaryan9200Bruno SouzaSomewhat-Safe-335+130
We’re still dealing with a fighter who has 7 total MMA bouts (he has boxing and kickboxing experience, as well). That said, his nickname “The Gun” is a perfect moniker. He’s aggressive and accurate and deadly powerful. The plus money ITD odds likely reflect his opponents karate style and that makes it a very tempting bet. We’ve seen that style shredded to bits when they can’t stay out of range.
Alex Pereira9100Andreas MichailidisSomewhat-Safe-250-120
The claim to fame for Pereira is his highlight KO of Izzy Adesanaya in a kickboxing war. He’s done it all in the world and needs to get busy in MMA if he wants to leave his mark at the age of 34. Michailidis is a nice UFC debut as a solid enough fighter who’s also pretty beatable. It should be a fun debut but barring a takedown or haymaker from Michailidis it’s Pereira’s night.
Ian Garry9500Jordan WilliamsSomewhat-Safe-400-190
Another much anticipated debutant in Garry here. He’s an Irish product with wins over some UFC vets already on his resume. His one knock is that he keeps his hands low. Williams is a warrior but doesn’t have the kind of one-punch power that worries me here. Williams also didn’t look as durable after his first weight cut to 170.
Phil Hawes9400Chris CurtisSomewhat-Risky-310-105
There are two versions of Phil Hawes fight. He either sees an opening for an enormous haymaker or he grinds against the cage for a decision. His power is immense when he’s fresh enough to swing hard. If not he’s leaning on opponents trying not to completely gas. Very boom/bust for the price. Curtis is also a 30-fight vet and very live as an underdog.
Justin Gaethje8900Michael ChandlerModerate-210-125
Gaethje comes in as a nice value here off of his loss to Khabib some time ago. He’s still the most violent individual in MMA. Chandler has brought the heat in two UFC fights but his weak points showed in losing to Charlie Oliviera in the second round. Gaethje has worked to stay violent while closing some of the easy shots he was giving up in counters. His leg kicks are crippling and if Chandler looks to brawl that’s Gaethje’s wheelhouse. Wrestling is the one liability he’s giving up to Chandler but Chandler doesn’t press that edge all that hard these days.
Shane Burgos9000Billy QuarantilloModerate-200+175
This fight is an absolute banger. Burgos hits super hard and he keeps coming unless you kill him. Billy Q has to eat punishment to put his best weapon on display: his cardio. Burgos has my pick but I have a little bit of concern on how much damage his chin has absorbed. If it holds he’s likely live for the KO or a decision with a knockdown or two.
Marlon Vera8800Frankie EdgarSomewhat-Risky-160+200
Vera’s a hard price to swallow this week. His only real path is to KO Edgar. Frankie was once iron chinned but age and wear have caught up to him in spots. If Vera didn’t continuously give away first rounds I might back him heavier. He’ll be looking to end the fight in the final two frames against someone that’s crafty and can wrestle.
Ode Osbourne8700CJ VergaraSomewhat-Risky-190+140
Ode’s a dangerous and rangy fighter at the weight. He has KOs and submission wins on his record. Vergara coming in as a late replacement is right in Ode’s crosshairs. When he wins Ode tends to score very well.
Rose Namajunas8200Zhang WeiliRisky+100+240
The rare co-main title fight that’s also a rematch is happening this card. Rose’s swift KO of Zhang left room for people to question how the fight goes if it went longer. We get the chance to find out. Not much has changed, besides the line. Rose has an advantage at range over everyone in the division. She can be bullied in the wrestling department but also has some slick BJJ outs. The crowds seem to be talking themselves into Zhang’s physicality so Rose may be a couple ticks lower in ownership.
Zhang Weili8000Rose NamajunasRisky-120+250
Being the bully is clearly Zhang’s path to success. Jessica Andrade has twice shown that getting in Rose’s face changes the tone of the fight. That said, Joanna couldn’t bully her and she’s the WMMA queen of bullying. Zhang will have to be pretty flawless implementing that approach, which she was not last fight.
Edmen Shahbazyan7700Nassourdine ImavovSomewhat-Risky+105+200
Edmen is going to be a popular underdog. He stormed into the UFC before stumbling against top ten competition. Imavov is not that. He’s a good kickboxer and tends to ignore the grappling. That’s why people are buying into Edmen since his losses were to grapplers. The problem is he’s a dangerous striker but still at a technical disadvantage. That makes him overly dependent on the KO. He’s certainly capable of that but it’s always a risk to depend on.
Billy Quarantillo7200Shane BurgosSomewhat-Risky+170+450
As much as Billy Q is staring down a dangerous barrel his junkyard mentality keeps him in every fight. Burgos has had some grappling struggles in his past and his chin is also showing some signs of wear. It’s a great price for the underdog and Billy has been good to our wallets.
Michael Chandler7300Justin GaethjeSomewhat-Risky+175+350
I’m playing Gaethje heavily but I can’t ignore how dangerous Chandler is. He’s willing to throw caution to the wind in opportune moments and go for broke to KO his opponent. Often early on. He is also a world class wrestler. Gaethje hasn’t had much trouble there but Khabib did make taking him down look easy.
Frankie Edgar7400Marlon VeraSomewhat-Risky+140+500
This is a buying opportunity. Everyone has the image of Cory Sandhagen’s flying knee KO of Frankie fixed in their minds. His chin is worse for wear and the output game is harder and harder as he ages but he’s still been competitive with Pedro Munhoz and went five with Max Holloway despite losing. Vera’s likely to give him the first round. Edgar also has his wrestling in the backpocket even though he doesn’t implement it as much these days.
Chris Curtis6800Phil HawesRisky+245+450
This line is a pretty big disrespect to Curtis. He’s been around the block and matches up well with Hawes' weaknesses. Mainly that Hawes gases and Curtis has shown the ability to win by finish late in fights. Hawes also has major chin issues as he tires. The string of UFC wins for Hawes are nice but don’t belay how close the last two have been. Especially to Imavov where he could have been KO’d twice.
CJ Vergara7500Ode OsbourneRisky+160+240
There’s been a tale of two fighters for Ode Osbourne in the UFC. Against solid competition he’s looked lost. Against subpar competition he’s looked very dangerous. Vergara is tough to measure as a UFC debutant but he has some decent names on his fight resume. The late notice nature gives me pause but a good gameplan and hard nosed approach could keep him in the fight.
John Allan7800Aleksa CamurRisky+290+650
The path for Allan is purely wrestling based. Jacoby already has a glaring liability in the grappling. When you factor in that he’s a week of replacement with a risk of gassing out it’s a very viable upset here.
Gian Villante7900Chris BarnettRisky-130+240
The line on Villante has flipped to him being the favorite. Barnett is not a UFC mainstay by any means. If he’s motivated it’s a very winnable fight for Gian. That’s a major question given his announcement this will be his retirement fight.
Andreas Michailidis7100Alex PereiraRisky+200+500
Michailidis is the MMA vet despite being the worse striker. That occasionally surprise us and the glitzy striker ends up in situations they aren’t prepared to handle. Michailidis is mainly a brawler, however.



Draftkings Core Plays

Top Tier

Melsik Baghdasaryan$9,200
Ian Garry$9,500

Mid Tier

Justin Gaethje$8,900
Rose Namajunas$8,200
Value TierChris Curtis$6,800
Fanduel Core Plays

Top Tier

Melsik Baghdasaryan$21
Ian Garry$22

Mid Tier

Justin Gaethje$18
Frankie Edgar$13
Value TierJohn Allan$9


Favorite Bets: Namajunas +100, Edgar +140, Curtis +245

Favorite Props: Baghdasaryan ITD +130, Burgos/Quarantillo UNDER 2.5 rounds -135

Live Dogs: Covington, Namajunas, Edgar, Chandler, Curtis, Shahbazyan, Allan, Barnett



Kamaru UsmanvsColby Covington
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 19-1-0RecordRecord: 16-2-0
9 KO/TKO (47%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (25%)


-320Vegas Odds+250
6/10Lineup Pool5/10
Rose NamajunasvsZhang Weili
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 11-4-0RecordRecord: 21-2-0
2 KO/TKO (20%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (48%)


+100Vegas Odds-120
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Frankie EdgarvsMarlon Vera
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 23-9-1RecordRecord: 17-7-1
7 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (35%)


+140Vegas Odds-160
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
Shane BurgosvsBilly Quarantillo
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 13-3-0RecordRecord: 16-3-0
5 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (44%)


-200Vegas Odds+170
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Justin GaethjevsMichael Chandler
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 22-3-0RecordRecord: 22-6-0
19 KO/TKO (86%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (45%)


-210Vegas Odds+175
7/10Lineup Pool23/10
Alex PereiravsAndreas Michailidis
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 3-1-0RecordRecord: 13-4-0
3 KO/TKO (100%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (54%)


-250Vegas Odds+200
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
Al IaquintavsBobby Green
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 14-6-1RecordRecord: 27-12-1
 Knockouts9 KO/TKO (33%)


+155Vegas Odds-180
3/10Lineup Pool4/10
Phil HawesvsChris Curtis
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 26-8-0
 Knockouts14 KO/TKO (54%)
-310Vegas Odds+245
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
Edmen ShahbazyanvsNassourdine Imavov
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0
9 KO/TKO (82%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (40%)


+105Vegas Odds-125
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
Ian GarryvsJordan Williams
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 7-0-0RecordRecord: 9-5-0 (1 NC)
4 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (78%)


-400Vegas Odds+300
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
Gian VillantevsChris Barnett
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 17-13-0RecordRecord: 21-7-0
10 KO/TKO (59%)Knockouts16 KO/TKO (76%)
-130Vegas Odds+110
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
Dustin JacobyvsJohn Allan
$9,600DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 15-5-1Record

Record: 13-6-0 (1 NC)

10 KO/TKO (67%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (69%)


-380Vegas Odds+290
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
Melsik BaghdasaryanvsBruno Souza
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 6-1-0RecordRecord: 10-1-0
5 KO/TKO (83%)Knockouts 
-335Vegas Odds+260
7/10Lineup Pool2/10