It’s a night of rarities at UFC 264: a legit trilogy fight and a Conor McGregor fight with less than a year in between. Conor headlining a card isn't quite what it used to be at this point but it still means extra attention and bigger than usual contests. Keep an eye peeled for sportsbooks giving some serious odds boosts to capitalize. The rest of the card is a cut below the usual PPV offering because the UFC doesn’t need it to draw eyes but there are still some fun fights with some potential fireworks in store.

Main Event
Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor8100/8100-Stackability: Safe-130/ +110+130/+130
We get a rare treat in this trilogy. Not many legit third fights happen in MMA. It’s hard to get past the most recent result, in this case Dustin’s impressive KO win. The fighters are still the same, however. Conor will land some hard shots early and fade if he doesn’t find the knockout. Dustin will put his body on the line to eat punishment and execute a plan to out-volume and out-grit his opponent. It’s still a coinflip for who wins out. The leverage has flipped to the Conor side this go round. KOs are harder to depend on, though. I’ll take Dustin to get it done being the absolute warrior he is.
Sean O'Malley9500Kris MoutinhoSafe-800-350
O’Malley gets yet another fighter far beneath his level due to a late replacement. He’ll be mega chalk. The gamble you’re taking is that he wins early and does it with a knockdown or two. Moutinho is a tough enough fighter that he may see a second or third round before it ends.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov9300Jerome RiveraSomewhat-Safe-330+280
Zhalgas tends to be a decision type fighter, which isn’t something we want to roster barring lots of grappling. That hasn’t been Zhaglas in the UFC. Enter Jerome Rivera. He has two glaring weaknesses: defensive grappling and getting hit too easily. There are paths that lead to Zhalgas having a rare boom score on DK.
Ilia Topuria9100Ryan HallModerate-230+130
This fight could be bonkers. Topuria seems to have no fear and wants to put on exciting fights. Whether he tangles with the BJJ wizard Hall on the mat or just looks to KO him I’m hoping it’s a fun scrap. Hall tends to see the scorecards in fights so don’t count on a finish.
Alen Amedovski9000Hu YaozongRisky-130+160
I can’t explain to you why Amedovski is this big of a favorite. He’s 0-2 in the UFC with two awful game plans. He generally knocks out low level competition or loses. Yaozong is very low level, however.
Stephen Thompson8500Gilbert BurnsModerate-160+240
Wonderboy could fight into his 40’s with his smooth karate style. It may not be the flashiest but man is it effective. His one weakness is that on the rare occasion someone has been able to catch him he’s been hurt. That’s a weakness for everyone but without finishes he’s in there the full 15 minutes with killers. This one sets up the same. Burns will get outclassed on the feet and find Thompson a tough customer to grapple. Barring the surprise KO Wonderboy takes it. His upside is capped in the same fashion.
Tai Tuivasa8400Greg HardySomewhat-Risky-135+125
If Tai doesn’t get reckless this one’s his to win. Hardy has come a long way but is still a very incomplete fighter. Particularly in defending leg kicks. Tuivasa likes to kick early and then trade some leather. He’s been pretty durable and we’ve seen Hardy wilt and gas the longer fights go.
Michel Pereira8900Niko PriceSomewhat-Risky-170+163
The UFC took the two craziest dudes on the roster and wants to lock them in a cage. Underneath it all they’ve both been improving their technique. Perreira more so. If he avoid Price’s death touch he likely baters Niko for most of the fight. A KO will be tricky to score but not outside the realm of possibilities.
Dricus Du Plessis8200Trevin GilesSomewhat-Risky-120+175
Dricus looked a just a bit like he was in over his head in his UFC debut. Up until KO’ing Marcus Perez with an ear shot. That was on short notice in a pandemic so he deserves some slack. He’ll have a slight edge on the feet over Giles but I’d be very interested in seeing him work his capable submission game. If he pulls off another early finish he’s a solid value.
Jennifer Maia8800Jessica EyeSomewhat-Risky-190+400
Maia will have a pretty big grappling advantage here. She just needs to stay committed to it. That’s been a downfall in previous spots. It’s a borderline price to pay off with only a couple takedowns.
Brad Tavares8600Omari AkhmedovRisky-170+300
Tavares isn’t a finisher but is a sharp striker and seems to be out of his funk after knee surgery a few years back. Akhmedov is a tough customer but runs out of gas if he can’t dominate the grappling. Tavares by decision is a solid bet. Maybe even a good live bet after a competitive first round.
Irene Aldana8300Yana KunitskayaRisky-120+333
Aldana is tough to trust here. She’s struggled with grappling heavy approaches like Yana’s. On top of that, she missed weight. She still packs a lot of power in her boxing and Yana tends to get hit a lot when she isn’t dominating the clinch.
Niko Price7300Michel PereiraSomewhat-Risky+145+250
Price just isn’t very good at defending strikes. That’s almost always his undoing. He is good at attacking like a madman, though. If he happens to find Perreira’s chin early his score would be huge.
Ryan Hall7100Ilia TopuriaSomewhat-Risky+190+350
Hall has worked out a very efficient MMA strategy. Using kicks to keep range and pulling guard or rolling on a leg once the distance is closed has led to a productive UFC career. Topuria may be cocky enough to throw caution to the wind and crash in or even mess around on the mat. A finish at the price is a must roster.
Gilbert Burns7700Stephen ThompsonSomewhat-Risky+135+260
Burns has improved his striking little by little and it now compliments some scary power nicely. You aren’t going to out point Wonderboy and you aren’t going to have an easy time grappling him. You have to find his chin and fight like a wildman to do it. Burns is facing long odds but is good enough to pull off that kind of upset.
Greg Hardy7800Tai TuivasaRisky+115+225
Maybe Hardy finds a way to pace the fight and not run out of gas. I’d be surprised, though. Really he needs to throw out the cautious range fighting style he’s adopted and go for broke. Tai is a tough dude but has been KO’d before. It is heavyweight after all.
Hu Yaozong7200Alen AmedovskiRisky+110+200
If Yaozong doesn’t get dropped in the early going he can likely muscle up and control Amedovski as the bigger man. Hu has been off for almost three years assumingly working on his game. Maybe a much better version gets into the Octagon Saturday.
Carlos Condit7500Max GriffinRisky+160+400
Condit won’t do much to defend takedowns but I kind of get the feeling his opponents are being booked on a handshake agreement to stay on the feet. Griffin is a good enough boxer to hang with Condit but would likely get out-volumed baring any takedowns.
Omari Akhmedov7600Brad TavaresRisky+145+450
Akmedov doesn't have very many knockout wins but we've seen Tavares get hurt in the past when he's gotten a little lazy on defense. There's a chance Omari could pour enough on in that kind of spot that the ref has to step in.
Draftkings Core Plays

Top Tier

Sean O'Malley$9,500
Zhalgas Zhumagulov$9,300

Mid Tier

Tai Tuivasa$8,400
Dricus Du Plessis$8,200
Value TierRyan Hall$7,100
Fanduel Core Plays

Top Tier

Sean O'Malley$23
Michel Pereira$19

Mid Tier

Dricus Du Plessis$15
Hu Yaozong$11
Value TierRyan Hall$9

Favorite Bets: Tuivasa -135, Du Plessis -120, 

Favorite Props: Hall ITD +350, Zhumagulov ITD +280

Live Dogs: Hall, Burns, Condit, Akhmedov, Hardy, Eye, Yaozong

Stats & Picks: 

Dustin PoiriervsConor McGregor
$8,100DFS Salary$8,100
Record: 27-6-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 22-5-0
13 KO/TKO (48%)Knockouts19 KO/TKO (86%)
-130Vegas Odds+110
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Gilbert BurnsvsStephen Thompson
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 19-4-0RecordRecord: 16-4-1
6 KO/TKO (32%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (44%)
+135Vegas Odds-160
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
Tai TuivasavsGreg Hardy
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 12-3-0RecordRecord: 7-3-0 (1 NC)
10 KO/TKO (91%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (86%)
-135Vegas Odds+115
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
Irene AldanavsYana Kunitskaya
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 12-6-0Record

Record: 14-5-0 (1 NC)

6 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (50%)
-120Vegas Odds+100
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
Sean O'MalleyvsKris Moutinho
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 13-1-0RecordRecord: 9-4-0
9 KO/TKO (69%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (33%)


-800Vegas Odds+550
9/10Lineup Pool21/10
Carlos ConditvsMax Griffin
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 32-13-0RecordRecord: 17-8-0
15 KO/TKO (47%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (53%)
13 SUBMISSIONS (41%)Subs


+160Vegas Odds-190
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
Niko PricevsMichel Pereira
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 14-4-0 (2 NC)Record

Record: 25-11-0 (2 NC)

10 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (40%)


+145Vegas Odds-170
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
Ryan HallvsIlia Topuria
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 10-0-0
2 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (20%)


+190Vegas Odds-230
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
Trevin GilesvsDricus Du Plessis
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 14-2-0RecordRecord: 15-2-0
6 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (40%)


+100Vegas Odds-120
2/10Lineup Pool6/10
Jennifer MaiavsJessica Eye
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 18-7-1Record

Record: 15-9-0 (1 NC)

4 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (20%)
-190Vegas Odds+160
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
Omari AkhmedovvsBrad Tavares
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 21-5-1RecordRecord: 18-7-0
7 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (28%)


+145Vegas Odds-170
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
Zhalgas ZhumagulovvsJerome Rivera
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 13-5-0RecordRecord: 10-5-0
6 KO/TKO (46%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)


-330Vegas Odds+260
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
Hu YaozongvsAlen Amedovski
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 3-2-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
2 KO/TKO (67%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (100%)
+110Vegas Odds-130
4/10Lineup Pool4/10