MLB DFS Value Vault October 11: Max Fried Looks to Dominate Tonight
Ray Kuhn brings you his favorite MLB DFS value plays for the Tuesday, October 11th daily fantasy baseball main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!
Buckle in, because we have another great day ahead of us. The Wild Card round of the 2022 playoffs is now behind us, with three lower seeds advancing, the Division Series begins this afternoon. The day begins with the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Atlanta Braves and ends with the San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (we have the Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees in between). It should not come as a surprise that there are many aces, starting with Justin Verlander, taking the mound today which certainly makes for an interesting slate. The thought process here, is to stay under the $9k mark on DK, consider that a value, and go from there. It is important to stay up to date with the latest MLB news and MLB lineups throughout the day. Now, let us take a look at some MLB DFS value options.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
Max Fried (ATL); DraftKings - $8,500; FanDuel - $10,400; Yahoo - $43
Fried has had a solid amount of rest since his start September 30th against the Mets to close out the regular season, and the southpaw will be good to go tonight. In 30 starts over 185.1 innings, Fried had a 2.48 ERA (2.85 xERA) while striking out 8.26 batters per nine innings. There is a lot to like as the left-hander walked just 1.55 batters per nine innings and did a great job of limiting home runs (0.58 per nine innings) to go along with a 51.2% ground ball rate. Opposing hitters managed just a 4% barrel-rate against Fried this season as they are having a difficult time squaring the ball up against him. In two starts against Philadelphia this year, Fried allowed four runs over 11 innings while striking out 16.
Julio Urías (LAD); DraftKings - $8,700; FanDuel - $10,100; Yahoo - $51
I know we are not used to seeing these prices on FD and Yahoo considered as value options, but it certainly applies on DK; especially in comparison. But on site that requires just one starting pitcher, the price can be worse here as Urias has one of the best matchups on the slate. It is a quick turnaround, and a long trip back out west, for the Padres after closing out the Mets on Saturday night. There is familiarity and success here as Urias faced San Diego four times already this season, including three times in September. Urias picked up three victories against the Padres and allowed four runs on just 15 hits (although he did walk 10) in 24 innings of work while striking out 18. While Urias did benefit from a .229 BABIP this season, now is not the time to question the results as he posted a 2.16 ERA (2.81 xERA) while striking out close to a batter per inning and picking up 17 victories in 31 starts.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
Carlos Santana, 1B (SEA); DraftKings - $2,500; FanDuel - $2,500; Yahoo - $15
At first glance, it does seem a little odd to target a .202 hitter from the regular season on a team with an implied run total of 2.55, but there is some logic here. I did do a double take here, but 97 career plate appearances (84 at bats) against Justin Verlander, Santana has gone deep nine times against the right-hander. He does have 19 strikeouts compared to 11 walks, which is a little off from where we are accustomed to seeing Santana, but based on the price and the home runs the first baseman is certainly worthy of an extended look today.
Josh Naylor, 1B/OF (CLE); DraftKings - $3,600; FanDuel - $3,100; Yahoo - $15
It was a little unexpected, but certainly warranted, that there was speculation Cole would not be taking the ball in Game One for the Yankees. The New York ace has had his share of troubles with the long ball this season, and Cleveland’s cleanup hitter has gone deep twice in 12 at bats against Cole in his career while batting .333. Naylor has been a strong option for the Guardians all season batting .256 with 20 home runs and 79 RBI and it is unclear what exactly we will get from Cole tonight.
Jeremy Peña, SS (HOU); DraftKings - $3,700; FanDuel - $3,300; Yahoo - $16
It has been a pretty strong debut season for Pena as he seamlessly replaced Carlos Correa even if other AL rookies have overshadowed him. Granted it has been a while since the Astros truly played a pressure filled game, but Pena hit .253 this season with 22 home runs, 63 RBI, 72 runs scored, and 11 stolen bases as a productive member of Houston’s lineup. The fact that he now bats between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez only helps to make the case for him.
Orlando Arcia, 2B/3B/SS (ATL); DraftKings - $2,700; FanDuel - $2,400; Yahoo - $13
We have seen how strong Atlanta’s lineup can be and Arcia provides some cheap exposure this afternoon against a southpaw in Ranger Suárez. In 234 plate appearances this season, Arcia has nine home runs and 30 RBI and this is more the case of a cost effective option for a team, the Braves, expected to have a solid offensive day.
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