Homestead-Miami Speedway is playing host to the second race in the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. The 4EVER 400 by Mobil 1 is set for Sunday at one of the best tracks on the schedule. Always known as a driver’s track, Homestead really puts the racing in the hands of the drivers rather than track position or engineers at the shop. Why is that? The design of the track, the progressive banking, the tire fall off. All of it. Given the way the Next Gen car has raced on mile-and-a-half tracks and how good this track always seems to be, this is setting up for a great race on Sunday at Homestead.

NASCAR DFS Strategy For 4EVER 400 At Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami has been on the NASCAR schedule since 1999. In those 24 races, it’s been an interesting mix of outcomes depending on what stats we’re looking at. If we want to focus on where the race winners are coming from, we need to look at the top-10. Why? Well, only thrice has the winner come from outside the top-20 and in 17-of-the-21 other races, the winner has started inside the top-10. However, we don’t necessarily need the race winner in our DFS lineups, though recommended to shoot for, in order for us to win. So what does it look like from a passing perspective? Well, Dan Malin and I talked about that on the podcast this week and the stats are pretty clear. Drivers can move up here, whether it be from passing on the track, pit strategies, cautions, or tire strategies. In the last five races, as you’ll see below, nearly half of the top-10 finishers started outside the top-12, and in most cases started well outside the top-12. For DFS purposes it doesn’t particularly matter how the drivers are finishing there, just that they are. If we’re looking at other tracks for performance indicators and history, which tracks are most similar to Homestead? Well, depends a bit who you ask. If you ask Goodyear, they’ll tell you that it’s most similar to Darlington for who they’re building their tires for this weekend. If you ask the drivers, they’ll tell you they think it’s its own track given the oval shape and tire wear and progressive banking. However, when we look at setups and stat samples, we’re looking at Auto Club, Darlington, Kansas, Homestead, and Vegas races in the Next Gen car. All of those tracks have multiple grooves and tire wear factors that make them similar to how Homestead races.

For Cash builds, we’re hunting 1-2 laps led dominators and the rest of the spots filled with big PD upside plays. That’s pretty similar to how we typically approach an intermediate track elsewhere. The difference here is that we can get away with just one dominator and five PD plays rather than a 2-4 mix.

For GPP builds, it’s a tad more nuanced than cash strategy. Clearly we’re looking for as many dominator points as we can get, but we’re also looking for as high of finishing positions as we can get too. At a 400-mile race, we’re needing drivers to hit as close to 6x value as possible, or average that across the lineup to really sit high on the payouts. How does that play out across a lineup? It means possibly going with two cheaper drivers to get another high-priced driver who can really rack up the dominator points and lots of finishing points.

 RaceRaceRaceRaceRace 
 12345AVG
Positive Place Differential221616252220.2
Six+ Place Differential Spots111111869.4
Double-Digit Place Differential486324.6
Double-Digit Fast Laps566766
20+ Laps Led344364
50+ Laps Led122221.8
100+ Laps Led111201
Lead Lap Finishers232515101818.2
Top-10 Finish %5653344%

Practice And Qualifying Results For Homestead NASCAR Race

The following table shows where each driver in the field, sorted by qualifying spot, ran at practice over the short and long run averages. It’s designed to show who may move up and who may be able to hold qualifying spots better than we think. Of course this is only part of the info to building lineups and you can read full analysis for the top picks below.

DriverAvg. Prac to QualQual1-Lap5-Lap10-lap15-lap20-Lap25-Lap
Martin Truex Jr-11161110141217
Bubba Wallace-421115621
Tyler Reddick-1238913161529
Brad Keselowski-14954446
Kyle Larson-1517103125
Austin Dillon-761816159143
William Byron-67211378822
Ross Chastain-381615171051
Ty Gibbs-209292728292833
Ryan Blaney31032152112
Denny Hamlin211741113 11
Alex Bowman11214227931
Christopher Bell1134814151118
Daniel Suarez-1014121426282736
Michael McDowell-101553535  24
Chase Elliott-51620222225259
Chris Buescher-1017323130272616
Kyle Busch818156911108
Erik Jones-819262827  28
Corey Lajoie12028232118167
Chase Briscoe102110712121313
Kevin Harvick42224241819214
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1223131263330
John Hunter Nemechek-224302924222227
AJ Allmendinger825191716171715
Austin Cindric7262332926242
Justin Haley327221934  23
Harrison Burton828231819231919
Ryan Preece729252020202026
Aric Almirola930272525241810
JJ Yeley23135343230 14
Todd Gilliland232333031312925
Ty Dillon733312623212334
Ryan Newman13434323332 32
Josh Bilicki-135363636  35
Joey Logano273611386720

DraftKings Scoring Trends For Homestead

The following chart shows the DraftKings scoring averages by starting spot over the last five Homestead-Miami races. The idea is to show the strategy for building lineups and where the scoring comes from rather than be hard-and-fast rules for which spots score set numbers of points. The drivers, nor how/why they started there, factor into the scoring averages.

FanDuel Scoring Trends For Homestead

The following chart shows the FanDuel scoring averages by starting spot over the last five Homestead-Miami races. The idea is to show the strategy for building lineups and where the scoring comes from rather than be hard-and-fast rules for which spots score set numbers of points. The drivers, nor how/why they started there, factor into the scoring averages.