New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the host venue this weekend. Known as the Magic Mile, it’s a shorter, flatter track in the realm of Phoenix, Richmond, Gateway, and even a tad of Martinsville. Just how short is it, it’s 1.058 miles in length with banking no more than seven degrees. If you want more track stats and layout info you can check out the Track Breakdown for this week’s Ambetter 301. Let’s look into Practice and Qualifying data along with some DFS strategy following qualifying before looking at the top plays for New Hampshire.

Practice To Qualifying

Below is a table showing the not only the qualifying spots for each driver but also the practice speeds. Comb. Prac. Is the single lap speed, each of the other columns show that lap average speed and where it ranks. It’s designed to show you how each driver stacks up against where they qualified.

DriverDK$FD $Prac to QualQualComb. Prac5-Lap10-lap15-Lap
Kyle Busch$11,000$12,50015172211
Joey Logano$10,800$13,500-121224221611
Denny Hamlin$10,600$12,000-7142128  
Martin Truex Jr$10,400$11,000-4151187
Chase Elliott$10,300$13,000-426510 
Ryan Blaney$10,000$14,000-121123211312
Ross Chastain$9,800$11,500618121211 
Kyle Larson$9,600$10,500484445
William Byron$9,400$10,00056113 
Christopher Bell$9,100$9,500-1552018  
Kevin Harvick$8,800$8,20011091072
Tyler Reddick$8,600$8,500-9132225159
Chase Briscoe$8,400$9,8002629332 
Kurt Busch$8,200$8,000-22325231810
Aric Almirola$8,100$7,800-3710953
Daniel Suarez$7,900$7,500-719262014 
Alex Bowman$7,800$9,0001027171917 
Austin Cindric$7,600$6,5000282827198
Bubba Wallace$7,400$5,500-7411794
Erik Jones$7,300$7,000822146  
AJ Allmendinger$7,100$4,0005201524  
Brad Keselowski$6,900$6,0001981412 
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,700$5,000-824323124 
Michael McDowell$6,500$6,800-15153029  
Austin Dillon$6,300$5,80013029   
Chris Buescher$6,100$7,2009167822 
Justin Haley$5,900$4,5009251615  
Cole Custer$5,800$4,5004231917  
Corey Lajoie$5,600$3,000-621272620 
Ty Dillon$5,400$4,000173518162113
Harrison Burton$5,200$3,5001831131366
Todd Gilliland$5,100$2,500-526313023 
Cody Ware$5,000$2,00003636   
BJ McLeod$4,800$2,000-3323534  
Josh Bilicki$4,600$2,000134333225 
JJ Yeley$4,500$2,000-1333433  

NASCAR DFS Strategy

As was talked about on the Podcast this week with Edward Raus and I, the pricing is a bit interesting. That was even before we saw cars on track. It got more interesting on Saturday. If you take a look at some of the stats shown in the Track Breakdown we can deduce how the strategy has worked here in the past. The first thing that jumps out is that track position has been king here. An average of 3.4 drivers a race have finished in the top-10 after starting outside the top-12. That indicates passing is tough, especially the closer to the front you get. That being said though, the drivers that are starting further back in the field have been able to move up some. An average of 10.4 drivers a race have posted six or more spots of PD in the last five races while half that money have moved up double-digit spots a race. With 300 laps in the race, Laps Led and Fastest Laps can be differentiators in builds. However, it’s hard to see there being one dominator in a race given that there have only been three total drivers to top 100 laps led in the last five races combined. Studying the practice numbers will help, though it is important to note (and perhaps rewatch USA’s coverage of it) which drivers were in Group A and which were in Group B. As the track rubbered up, the pace slowed down and that might be an indicator of what we see in the race as well.

Average Points By Starting Spots

The following charts show the average DFS points scored by starting spot over the last five races at New Hampshire regardless of the driver in each starting spot. These are meant to illustrate strategy and not be a hard-and-fast rule for setting lineups.

(Max 3)
                                   
 DriverStartMakeCar Fanduel DraftKingsGame TypeBreakDown
Ky. Busch3Chevrolet8 $10000 $9700GPPUPGRADE
Ma. Truex12Toyota19 $8500 $9000BothUPGRADE
Ch. Elliott28Chevrolet9 $12000 $9800GPPUPGRADE
Ry. Blaney6Ford12 $13000 $10200BothUPGRADE
Ro. Chastain21Chevrolet1 $9000 $8600CashUPGRADE
Ky. Larson5Chevrolet5 $10500 $9500CashUPGRADE
Wi. Byron11Chevrolet24 $13500 $10000GPPUPGRADE
Ke. HarvickFord29 $ $CashUPGRADE
Ch. Briscoe9Ford14 $5500 $6600GPPUPGRADE
Ar. Almirola $ $CashUPGRADE
Al. Bowman17Chevrolet48 $8000 $8200CashUPGRADE
Bu. Wallace18Toyota23 $9500 $8800GPPUPGRADE
Er. Jones37Toyota43 $7200 $8000CashUPGRADE
Br. Keselowski24Ford6 $11000 $9300BothUPGRADE
Ch. Buescher7Ford17 $8200 $8300GPPUPGRADE
Ju. Haley31Ford51 $3500 $5300CashUPGRADE
Ty. DillonChevrolet25 $ $CashUPGRADE
Ha. Burton16Ford21 $2500 $5400CashUPGRADE