Oh boy! It’s Atlanta Motor Speedway part two for the 2022 NASCAR Cup schedule. The Quaker State 400 is on Sunday and if it’s anything like the first race at Atlanta this year, we’re in for a wild affair. NASCAR wanted Atlanta Motor Speedway to be similar to Daytona and Talladega and that’s just what they got with the repave completed earlier this year. As we get ready NASCAR DFS this weekend, let’s look at driver averages for plate races, the Atlanta weekend schedule, Goodyear tire notes, and DFS strategy for how to build winning lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel for the Quaker State 400.

Quaker State 400 Schedule

The schedule this weekend is a bit of a short one. That’s typical for races like this and mirrors what’s done for Daytona and Talladega.

Saturday, July 9th: Cup Qualifying at 11:35 am ET

Sunday, July 10th: Quaker State 400 Cup race at 3:00 pm ET

Atlanta Motor Speedway Weather

As is typical of Atlanta this time of year, it’s going to be hot. How hot? The forecasted high on Saturday is 92 degrees while Sunday is in the upper 80s at 88 degrees. That’s not all though. There’s a better than 50-percent chance of rain both on Saturday and Sunday. If the rain is delayed or can’t get in on Sunday, Monday after the morning should be rain-free. Don’t be surprised though if rain plays a role in Sunday’s racing and perhaps even the qualifying order.

Goodyear Tire Notes for Quaker State 400

In a way, it’s great that there’s been a race at Atlanta previously this year. Why’s that? Well they’re running the same tires here that they did back in March at the first race on the repave. However, in another way, this track is still tricky given that this is the only track they use these tire codes on. So we can’t even compare the tires to Talladega and/or Daytona since these tires are different and deal with heat build up differently. Hopefully, the teams are taking the PSI recommendations from Goodyear seriously this time around and the tires hold up better than in March.

NASCAR DFS Strategy for Atlanta

We’ve referenced Daytona and Talladega a few times already and we’re going to do it again here. Those tracks are certainly comparable to the new Atlanta given the the package on the cars are the same here as they are at Daytona and Talladega. What’s that package? It’s the one we like to call the plate package. It restricts the horsepower of the cars and thus creates everyone driving roughly the same speed at the same time in one big pack. As we’ve seen at Daytona and Talladega and at Atlanta in March, these races are chaotic almost all of the time. We’ve also heard the phrase “stack the back” when it comes to these races for DFS right? That’s not entirely the best way to have success but it is a start for NASCAR DFS. If we look back to previous races, the best strategy is typically to build mostly around drivers starting P20-P30 and then add in one or two drivers starting P13-P19. Stacking the back can be effective to cash, however to really win money at NASCAR DFS these weeks, the highest-scoring drivers start in the above listed starting spots. That’ll be born out in the Average Points by Starting Spot graphs in the playbook as well. The other stat that we usually disregard most weeks but pay attention to this week is laps completed. Why is that? If a driver is on track longer that means they’re further up toward the front in the grid and getting us more points for finishing position, position differential, and laps completed — on FanDuel.

Facts To Know This Week

  • Over the last five plate-style races, just four drivers in the field have finished in the top-10 at least three times. Only one has four top-10s.
  • Not a single driver in the field has a Driver Rating over 100 in those last five races either.
  • Four starting spots inside the top-15 rank inside the top-10 highest-scoring spots on DraftKings, five starting spots inside the top-15 rank inside the top-10 highest scoring spots on FanDuel.
  • An average of 21 drivers over the last five plate races have finished on the lead laps.
  • Over 11 drivers a race in the last five plate races have averaged double-digit Place Differential.
  • On average, more than half of the top-10 finishers have started outside the top-12 in the last five races.

Last 5 Plate Races

The table below shows the number of drivers to reach each stat-type over the last five similar plate races with Race 1 being the most recent.

Positive Place Differential192022252321.8
Six+ Place Differential Spots171615131515.2
Double-Digit Place Differential15912101111.4
Double-Digit Fast Laps381002.4
20+ Laps Led554023.2
50+ Laps Led011000.4
100+ Laps Led010000.2
Lead Lap Finishers212315311621.2
Top-10 Finish %743585.4

For the tables below:

The DFS Scoring Table: Race 1 is the most recent race in the sample size with Race 5 being the earliest. We are using the Last 5 similar plate races for the data.

The Similar Races table: The data is comprised of stats from the last 10 plate races.

**NEW**— Odds To Salary Table: We compare the DK salaries to the percentage chances based on DK Sportsbook odds for a Win, Top-3, Top-5, and Top-10. To get percentages from odds, divide the denominator by the numerator + denominator I.e. 10/1 equals 1/10+1 = 9.1%.

The This Week's Race table: We are using the last five plate-style races for this data including Atlanta, Daytona, and Talladega.