We have a small slate of NBA games here on Saturday November 11th but there is still plenty of action over on the Sleeper HQ app with today's Picks game. When building entries today we are looking at some solid more or less projections to go over which includes a matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic as well as a game between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat.

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NBA Sleeper Top Picks & Plays

Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks

I got to be honest with everyone here, this line feels broken and sometimes that's because it is a trap. We are looking at Jalen Johnson with a points+rebounds projection that is set at more or less than 20.5. On the season he is nearly averaging 15.0 points and 9.0 rebounds which is more than today's total. Over the last four games he's been even better on the glass, averaging close to 15.0 points and 11.0 rebounds. If you go check out some other lines, this total is listed at -150 for him to finish with more. 

Where this gets tricky is the spread. Atlanta is a 7.5-point home favorite against a Heat team that is without Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. It's possible that Johnson doesn't get a full run of minutes and therefore doesn't find himself with more than this total here today. That said, he did play 36 minutes in the Hawks blowout win against the Pelicans a few games back. I'm going to ride the recent trend and season long performance here with the Hawks breakout forward.

Pick: More than 20.5 Points + Rebounds

Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

Listen, we love Banchero and we are excited to see his year two development after a great rookie season but he still has issues when it comes to turnovers. This season we've seen him finish with more than 2.5 turnovers in all but two games and over the last four games he has finished with no less than four turnovers in any contest. Today he draws a matchup against Giannis Antetokounmpo. It feels pretty likely, given how much Banchero touches the basketball, that some more turnovers will be made here today.

Pick: More than 2.5 Turnovers 

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