Welcome to the first Monday Night Football matchup of the 2023 NFL season! NFL Week 1 wraps up tonight with the Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets matchup on MNF. Let's dive into the top NFL Underdog Fantasy picks for this Bills vs Jets showdown. Our top NFL picks today feature Jets running back Dalvin Cook and Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Enjoy these NFL Underdog top plays and Monday Night Football picks as you watch tonight's game. If you're making more NFL picks tonight or setting NFL DFS lineups, check out our NFL daily projections. Now, let's dive into the top NFL Week 1 picks on Underdog Fantasy for Monday night's Bills vs Jets matchup.

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NFL Underdog Fantasy Top Picks

Week 1 Monday Night Football Bills vs Jets

Dalvin Cook, New York Jets – HIGHER than 48.5 Rushing Yards

This Dalvin Cook rushing yards line is set a bit low because he’ll presumably split touches with Breece Hall in the New York Jets backfield this season. Plus, there’s uncertainty about how much work Cook will get right away after being a late offseason signing. However, banking on 45+ rushing yards from the newest Jet presents some value tonight. First off, Hall’s snaps and touches could be limited in Week 1 as he’s still returning from a season-ending ACL injury suffered last year. Although Hall was a full participant in Saturday’s practice, we have to assume his workload will be managed early on. 

As for Cook, he’s still one of the premier running backs in the NFL who’s run for over 1,100 yards in four straight seasons coming into this year. When he saw double-digit carries last season, Cook had at least 50 rushing yards in 11 of 14 games while averaging 69 rushing yards per game overall in 2022. It’s worth noting Jets head coach Robert Saleh said the team would be “smart” with how Cook and Hall are used tonight. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, though, reports that Cook is a “full go” this week with “no limitations” after having offseason shoulder surgery. 

Of course, all the attention will be on Aaron Rodgers in his Jets debut. But don’t forget about how much the running backs were used in the Green Bay Packers offenses in recent seasons with Rodgers under center. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon still saw plenty of carries per game and combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards last year. Even though the Buffalo Bills had a top-five rush defense last season, if we think Cook gets more carries than Hall tonight, this rushing yards line is too low. 

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – LOWER than 70.5 Receiving Yards

NFL fans will be treated to one of the best WR-CB matchups in the league tonight. Get your popcorn ready for Stefon Diggs vs Sauce Gardner. There’s no denying Diggs’ talent, but let’s back Gardner and the New York Jets secondary to limit how many receiving yards the Buffalo Bills’ top wideout gets. We’ll see if the Jets go with a zone defense or man-to-man, but Diggs is in trouble if it’s the latter and is matched up with Sauce. As a rookie last year, Gardner was an elite man-to-man corner and routinely shut down opposing wideouts. He actually allowed only 54 total yards in man coverage all season. That’s partly due to quarterbacks not even throwing in his direction, but Sauce also led the NFL in passes defended (20).

Again, we don’t know whether Gardner will follow Diggs around in man-to-man for the whole game. The Jets could also use D.J. Reed to cover Diggs if they stick their corners to one side. The Bills will also likely try to get the ball in their star’s hands in any way possible and move him around the formation. The Jets would be smart to gameplan around limiting Diggs and forcing other Bills receivers to beat them. When Diggs faced the Jets last season, he went for 93 yards in the first meeting and then only 37 yards in the second matchup. 

Obviously, rooting against Diggs is risky after he put up 1,429 receiving yards in 2022 with 70+ yards in 11 of 16 games. Even so, the Jets pass defense was the third-best in the NFL last year, allowing only 189.4 passing yards per game. The D is expected to be elite once again in 2023 and Diggs could start the season slow in this matchup. 


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