Welcome to another full Friday slate of games on the Major League Baseball schedule as we dive into MLB Underdog picks and MLB props. Our top MLB picks on Underdog Fantasy tonight feature New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole against the Baltimore Orioles. Plus, we look at a Dane Dunning prop in his start for the Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres. Check out these free MLB player props and MLB daily picks on Underdog Fantasy for “Pick'Em” contests tonight. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Friday, July 28th.


MLB Underdog Fantasy Top Picks July 28

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees – UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Usually, we like to target Gerrit Cole when he’s at home, but this matchup and his current form are lining up perfectly. The Baltimore Orioles have struggled mightily vs right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (since the All-Star break) with an MLB-worst .267 wOBA. If we look at the past week, the Orioles have a league-high 32.9% strikeout rate vs righthanders and are dead last in wOBA (.213), batting average (.174), and ISO (.090). They also have just a 5.7% walk rate vs righties in this recent stretch. This all lines up for Gerrit Cole to do his thing on the mound tonight. The New York Yankees righty has been really good over the past two months with a 2.59 ERA and 2.87 FIP across his last nine starts. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 16 of 21 starts this season and in seven of those last nine outings. Cole has also been strong on the road this season with a 2.59 ERA and 2.81 FIP, including under 2.5 earned runs allowed in seven of eight road starts. 

Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers – OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed 

Dane Dunning’s 3.18 ERA is impressive on the surface, but he’s been due for negative regression for a while. His 4.97 xERA and 4.18 FIP are still worrisome, as are his low 15.4% strikeout rate and high .342 expected wOBA. We got a poor Dunning outing in his most recent start against the Los Angeles Dodgers when he gave up five runs and seven hits over three innings. On the road against the San Diego Padres tonight, don’t be surprised if he runs into trouble again. While the Padres are still underperforming, they do boast a low 17.6% strikeout rate and a high 10.2% walk rate vs right-handed pitching since the All-Star break. We could easily see Dunning give up a few runs if he struggles to the Padres hitters out. The Texas Rangers righty has allowed 3+ earned runs in five of his last 10 starts but has flirted with the over more often. He has at least two earned runs allowed in nine of these past 10 outings and has been lucky not to have more poor outings. 


MLB Best Bets

If you are looking for some MLB Best Bets today, check out our MLB betting picks for today's slate of games.

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