Can you believe it’s already Week 11 of the NFL season? You know what they say; time flies when you’re having fun! We get a potential playoff preview tonight between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens, giving us a nice Thursday night treat. Joe Burrow has been looking more and more like himself, and with everything on the offense clicking for Lamar Jackson and company, this should be a fun one! If you’ve been hanging out in these internet streets, then you already know we have a new partner here at Fantasy Alarm. 

We’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Monday night was a little rough, with Dalton Kincaid falling short by 1.5 yards and Josh Allen just falling flat, so let’s get right tonight with a few of my favorite picks.

 

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New to Sleeper Picks? Right now new users who sign up will get a 100% deposit match up to $100 when they use code VAULT3. You must take advantage of this offer on your mobile device so you can download the Sleeper App and participate in their Picks contests.

NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Thursday Night Football

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals

With fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury, it’s the next man up, and that man is Tyler Boyd. In last week’s loss to the Texans, Boyd saw a prominent workload, playing 59 of the team’s 64 offensive snaps, leading the team in targets with 12, catching eight of them for 117 yards. While Baltimore’s defense has been good on the season overall, it’s more of a “bend, don’t break” situation with wide receivers. On the year, they’re allowing 19.7 receptions per game to the position alone, and with Marlon Humphrey doubtful to suit up for tonight’s game, the odds get even better. With Boyd’s increased role and a close game, he should easily hit this mark.

Pick: Tyler Boyd OVER 4.5 receptions (2.00x)

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Speaking of Baltimore’s defense, they have been incredibly good at stopping the run game this season, ranking ninth in rush DVOA and only allowing an average of 100 rushing yards per game. Joe Mixon, on the other hand, has not been efficient this year, only averaging 3.91 yards per carry on a limited 15.2 carries per game. He’s also not hit this mark in three of his last four games, making the matchup against the Ravens all the more imposing. Cincinnati is also a predominantly pass-happy defense, averaging 38.8 pass attempts per game compared to just 20.7 rushing attempts per game. With all of his efficiency metrics being sub-par, especially for a starting running back, I think he struggles today against a terrorizing linebacker corps. 

Pick: Joe Mixon UNDER 54.5 rushing yards (1.75x)

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Admittedly, we had a little bit of a bumpy week in Week 10 with Mark Andrews, but he was going up against a very good Cleveland defense that locks down tight ends. Tonight, though, he is PRIMED to bounce back against the Bengals, as they are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. There really hasn’t been a true wide receiver that emerged for the Ravens, so the passing game still runs through Andrews, and that’s good news for his fantasy outlook. He’s hit this mark in three of his last four games, and against the lackluster Cincinnati safeties, expect him to do it once again. 

Pick: Mark Andrews OVER 13.7 fantasy points (1.77x)

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