2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball: Trey Lance Among Fantasy Football ADP Fallers
Britt Flinn breaks down a few players who have seen their fantasy best ball ADP fall recently, including Trey Lance.
As seven NFL teams begin training camp this week, we’re starting to see significant movement in ADP among a handful of players. News and sound bites have been pouring in from around the country, and the knee-jerk reaction so many of us have to preseason reports has driven some previously hyped up players down the board. On May 31st, it was reported that Brock Purdy is ahead of schedule in his rehab and is already throwing, and with the success he saw last year, Trey Lance’s ADP has dipped nearly a full round in the past two weeks. Then, reports leaked out of Las Vegas’ camp about Jimmy Garoppolo’s failed physical and restructured contract has also created a cloud of uncertainty around that entire offense and has caused his ADP to nosedive. Let’s look at some of these players who have fallen, why they’re dropping, and if you can still consider them a value or if you should steer clear of them in your fantasy football drafts.
*ADP info taken from 4for4.com and is from May 22 through June 5.*
Fantasy Football Best Ball ADP Fallers:
Jimmy Garoppolo: Starting ADP of 188.5/Current ADP of 211.1
Change of +22.6
This drop in ADP should come as no surprise after the news came out that the Raiders restructured Garoppolo’s contract to convert his signing bonus to base salary, but the more concerning part of the news that may be going overlooked is that Las Vegas also included a “waiver and release” clause. This would allow the Raiders to release Garoppolo without paying him a dime if he doesn’t pass his physical, and the timing of the report is concerning. Garoppolo has always been more of a game manager with limited upside, but if he’s unable to play or is released, the team is currently rolling with Brian Hoyer as their backup, and that will affect every single skill position player on their roster. Not only should you steer clear of Jimmy G, but I’d also be wary of drafting any of his receivers at their current ADP.
Kyler Murray: Starting ADP of 141.1/Current ADP of 161.1
Change of +20
Kyler Murray was already in the depths of QB2 land after tearing his ACL in the late half of the 2022 season, but he kept dropping after the release of DeAndre Hopkins and other indications that the Cardinals are phoning it in this season. With a current win total projection of only 4.5, it doesn’t really make sense to rush Murray back. We’ve preached ad nauseam about avoiding players who are hurt entering the season, and this combination of an uncertain timetable and inefficient offense should continue to drive Murray down the draft boards. Even so, he’s someone to be avoided unless you’re desperate at the quarterback position.
Josh Downs: Starting ADP of 165.4/Current ADP of 181.8
Change of 16.4
Post-draft hype was at a record level for Josh Downs after it was reported that he and Anthony Richardson were practicing in a parking lot before rookie minicamp, but now Downs is on the injury report with an undisclosed knee injury. Reports have been very vague regarding the nature or extent of the injury, but a rookie wide receiver doesn’t need much working against him to drive his ADP down. If it’s something minor, you could find yourself getting a discounted slot receiver, but keep an eye on the news as the situation develops.
Michael Mayer: Starting ADP of 183.5/Current ADP of 195.4
Change of 11.9
Falling in line with the Jimmy Garoppolo news, Michael Mayer’s ADP has started to shift. While he was regarded in some circles as the most complete tight end in the NFL draft, uncertainty at quarterback combined with historical data about first-year tight ends has driven his cost way down. It’s an uphill battle for most first-year tight ends to become fantasy relevant, and while some were touting Mayer as the next coming of Rob Gronkowski, it will be hard to live up to that mark if there are quarterback inconsistencies. He may be a solid dynasty asset, but in best ball, he may be shaping up to be a wasted roster spot.
Trey Lance: Starting ADP of 175.1/Current ADP of 186.5
Change of 11.4
There is so much unknown about the San Francisco 49ers quarterback room that it’s almost impossible to gauge how any of their skill position players will perform. However, interesting reports have come out over the past week or so that wonderkid Brock Purdy is ahead of schedule in his rehab and is already throwing in camp. This puts the status of Trey Lance’s future as a starter in real jeopardy, especially considering head coach Kyle Shanahan’s commitment to Purdy picking up where he left off last year. There’s no doubt that draft capital should play a part in that decision, but since when have the 49ers let that dictate their personnel moves? Lance has yet to show in the NFL why he was a top three draft selection, and if Purdy comes back healthy, don’t be surprised to see Lance warming the bench.
Jalin Hyatt: Starting ADP of 139.6/Current ADP of 149.3
Change of 9.7
Sterling Shepard is reportedly running routes at minicamp, and his return from injury has spooked people away from drafting Jalin Hyatt, resulting in a drop of nearly a round in two weeks. This may be one of the few fallers on this list that feels like an overreaction; Hyatt is still elite at creating separation, there’s not much in front of him in the way of competition, and although he’s undersized, the talent possessed by the Biletnikoff Award winner is unmatched on this roster. He needs to expand his route tree to be truly elite, but getting him in the mid-twelfth round gives you a little breathing room for him to develop. He’s one I’m willing to take the discount on.